This post should be bookmarked. I’m going to make you a Betfair Super Trader. I will show you how to get easy, consistent green screens with your Betfair trading.
Here it is, the post I never thought I would share on the blog.
This post should come with a warning, that warning is if you read it you’ll be smarter than most of the Betfair traders out there.
If you take action on what I am giving you, you will make it into the 5% of profitable traders. How can I make this claim?
The super trader steps and system I am going to share with you in this post are responsible for making more people pro traders than anything else on the internet.
After reading this you will have the tools to become green on Betfair consistently.
This isn’t me trying to sell you a strategy either. This is me taking you by the hand and showing you exactly how to build your own strategy on Betfair.
In the shortest and easiest time.
If there was a step-by-step method for getting a green screen in 1/10th of the time, without having to spend all day researching your trades and adding them to a spreadsheet, would you finally feel confident committing to getting green screens on Betfair?
If you aren’t saying “HELL YES”, then I question whether you even have a pulse. 🤪
This is a long post, in today’s world I BET you won’t read it. You’ll get distracted. Stick with it though… I am going to show you how to hit Betfair for 6!
I also recorded this as a podcast you can listen here
Let me start by explaining how all this came about.
I’ve been trading on Betfair for over 16 years, I’ve been helping people get better at trading for over 10 years.
I actually give a shit about people getting better at trading, it’s why you’ll see the energy from me on the YouTube channel (Hyperlink) and inside the membership.
By actually caring it’s allowed me to get to know traders and how they think and the challenges they face.
I was sick of seeing traders have that ‘AHA’ moment about a strategy, you know you’ve had that same moment haven’t you?
Where you’ve gone ‘This is the strategy that will make me thousands per month!’
Dreaming about how you’ll spend that money every month.
So you go ahead and:
- Set up a nice spreadsheet to track the trading selections
- Start tracking them
- Promise yourself this time will be different
BUT then life gets in the way. I don’t blame you either. I’d much rather spend my Saturday doing something with the wife and family than praying for Boreham Wood to get their S**T together and not concede that stupid, pathetic, easy, sloppy goal!!! Damn you BOREHAM WOOD!!!
After I got over my mental breakdown from that sloppy goal. I decided enough was enough, there is so much crap out there that something had to be done.
There is also a culture around a lot of Betfair traders that you have to be secretive and not reveal too much.
Which means nobody can really get the answers, it’s not your fault, it’s the industry and this blog is surely going to ruffle a few feathers.
I built the super trader system to be a roadmap to attack betfair in 3 stages. To show you exactly how to build your own profitable strategy.
I have one aim with the Betfair Super Trader System & This post!
I want you to become a profitable trader. This isn’t me giving you selections every day, this is you becoming the trader you want to be.
Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach him to fish he’ll never go hungry.
That’s why you should trust me. Unlike everybody else, I teach you to become a better trader – so you won’t need me.
This works for every market, every sport!
The Betfair Super Trader System – 4 Steps
There are 4 stages or steps to this system, they need to be worked through in order. This also applies to every market and every sport.
The steps are:
- Laying the groundwork
- In-Play Trading
- Post Trade Analysis
Step 1 – Laying the groundwork
One of the main things I have learned about Betfair traders is that they want to be trading all the time, if it moves they’ll trade it.
This is the first lesson of becoming a super trader. That’s not how super traders act. Super Traders pick one sport and one strategy and they focus all their attention on that.
You have to be honest with yourself as well. What you need to do right now is in detail write out exactly where you are at with your trading. What you’ve been doing, why, your bank etc… everything you can think of. There’s no right or wrong here. But to know where you want to get to you have to know where you are now.
Action item: Write out where you are now with your trading, be specific.
There’s another lesson here, when I ask traders to be specific they never take the time to be. You have to invest time into your Betfair trading. It take on average traders 800 hours to be successful. There’s a reason why the super trader system cuts that short.
I once asked a trader ‘Tell me what you are struggling with when it comes to trading on Betfair.’ I got the reply ‘Football’.
When I asked them to be more specific, they replied ‘Football trading’.
**Bangs head against wall**
To help guide you as well I have created the levels that most traders can associate with here:
I’ve created 5 levels of Super Trader to help you here, they are:
- Level 1
- Goal – First profitable trade
- Level 2
- Goal – First profitable day trading
- Level 3
- Goal – First profitable month
- Level 4
- Goal – Consistently profitable – Part time level – £1K
- Level 5
- Goal – Full time trading
Right, now we know where you are it’s time to think about where you want to be with your trading on Betfair?
Action item: write out your goals for trading on Betfair.
This is for you, to motivate you and know where you are moving towards. It’s like google maps isn’t it? When it knows where you are and where you want to get to, it can get you there!
Why one strategy for Betfair?
This is an important question, one you need to really think about right now. If you’re like most traders who are trading on Betfair you are scatterguning your trades, you are like a squirrel. Just running around chasing everything, scattering bullets all over the place. Then wondering why you aren’t hitting the target?
We aren’t taking a shotgun approach here, where we shot towards a target, scattering shot everywhere hoping something hits.
We are acting like the sniper. We are laser focused, we know our target and we are prepared – by doing this we maximize time as well.
This is my barbell idea, I use this process for every strategy I created. There’s a video below of me explaining this.
Right, now you have all the foundational elements we can move onto step 2.
Step 2 – Pre Trade
Cor I hope you are still with me?
Because this is where we get into the start of building this one strategy out. I’ve always been analytical, always been able to see the path.
For me it starts with one simple question (those who know me are sick of this!).
What has to happen?
That question changes your trading life. NOW!
Well, think about that one sport you are going to trade? What’s the market you want to trade?
I will run through an example in this post to further explain this.
For this example I will use Football Trading & the Over 2.5 goals market.
Now I have picked a sport and a market. I can ask the ‘What has to happen’ for that to be a winner question?
Write out everything that has to happen for that to be a winner. I mean everything that comes to mind, if there’s goals then ask the question of goals, what has to happen for goals to happen? Corners, assists etc….
- 3 goals
- Shots on target
- The ball has to get to strikers
- Strikers have to be playing
- Assist makers have to be playing
Action item: Write out the one sport and one market (strategy) you are going to be doing and then underneath list everything that has to happen for that trade to be profitable.
What do we do with this information?
This information allows us to be able to research the selections for that strategy, it also allows for us to repeat this process daily so we have a system to follow and build on the get selections everyday.
*Cough cough* I have the best stats software out there for you to find these trades but if you want to stick with free software that’s totally cool.
Now grab your coffee and get ready to start building your selections for that do. Every morning I grab my coffee, open the BTC stats
Find a website that gives you stats to be able to get the answers to the things you have on your sheet, for me the example above I am looking at:
- 3 goals
- Shots on target
- The ball has to get to strikers
- Strikers have to be playing
- Assist makers have to be playing
I start making my way though the stats data and looking for matches that meet some of these things. I document everything, the stats on the game, why I picked it.
When I have a list of shortlisted potential trades I check the news on them, making sure the players I need to be playing are, the assist makers are playing etc….
Now we move onto the In-Play section, this is step 2. To recap you now have an idea for a strategy and a way of picking potential trades. Next we are going to talk about what to do in play.
Here you have a rough plan of how you will trade this event based on the information you’ve gathered.
I used this exact process to build one of my most profitable strategies. It was supposed to be a Over 2.5 Goals. I thought I’d get in and the start and trade out after two goals, I followed this super trader principle and found it was pants for Overs. BUT it was bloody brilliant as a HT lay the current score trade, which meant I spent less time trading and made more.
Stick with this process, it’s worth it I promise!
Important point: Don’t overthink or try to make this section perfect, we are just formulating our ideas. What we shall do on step 3 and 4 is to get data on these and then be able to tweak our strategy.
Step 3 – In Play
WOW if you’ve done the work to get to this point I applaud you and you are making huge steps to becoming a super trader.
Now we look at what to look for in play and how we make the most of this.
It all starts with the aim of the strategy, so back to your what has to happen sheet!
Now brainstorm with that and the data you’ve collected a series of rules for what you are looking to see in play.
As an example:
- I might be looking for Salah to be getting shots on target
- I might have a minimum odds
- I might have see through researching the data that goals don’t usually come in the first 10 mins so I will wait to enter at 10 mins
Here we are loosely creating a series of rules that we are looking for in play, things to happen before we enter. By doing this it focuses on watching what is actually happening.
To make traders are oblivious to this or don’t know what to look for, but not you. Not anymore you have your list – it doesn’t matter if this isn’t perfect yet. By the end of this post it will be and you’ll be creating a solid list.
Entering your trade
You don’t have to use real money here, in fact I wouldn’t. I would be paper trading this till you have some data to be able to make an informed trade and strategy.
Let’s now say everything on your list has happened it’s now time to enter the trade. Here you have to do a few things, they are:
- Note down the time of entry
- The stake you are entering with
- The price of the market you are entering
- The price of some other main markets at the time of entry (Mainly match odds market)
- The stats in that match that led you to enter the market
All you have to do now is be constantly checking what’s happening in this trade with your original hypothesis.
Ask yourself is what’s happening in this market what I need to happen to profit? You go back to your what has to happen sheet and check.
It might be Salah is getting the ball, Trent is whipping the ball in, there’s corners, shots, one on ones etc…
It really helps you when you are always comparing what you are seeing to the original idea – because it focuses you on the right things.
Exiting the trade
The million dollar question right now, when do I know when to exit?
Firstly let’s say you are in profit and the trade has gone the way you thought it would, take the profit and move on – noting the data at the time. Exit point, exit time etc…. We can use this later!
If it isn’t going our way we look at the loose rules we are also referring back to what has to happen, if it isn’t happening well time to cut short.
Step 4 – Post Trade – You Are Nearly There!
This section most will skip, you might even be thinking about it. You might be fed up of me by now…
This is where the gold is. This is where all that work comes together, you are probably a little unsure about your strategy right now, maybe it’s done so-so but this is where we turn it into a beautiful swan!
The first thing we need to do is record our results on a spreadsheet. I use google sheets and I don’t overthink this either. Simple like this….
Then I create another sheet where I track some additional data, things that have happened.
This allows me to scale my strategy, I usually track things related to my what has to happen Q and then some other key things around the market like these for football (you can brainstorm your own for tennis & horse racing).
What to track (These are the main ones to track)
- HT Score
- FT Score
- Match odds at starts
- YOUR MARKET ODDS at start
- YOUR MARKET ODDS at entry
- YOUR MARKET ODDS at exit
- Time of first goal
- Time of second goal
- Time of third goal
- Home or Away scored 1st
- Shots on target
- Shots off target
- Dangerous attacks
You see now I have data, data is the new currency! I grab a coffee and I start to go through these sheets, looking at the data I have collected.
Looking at what leagues are doing better than others, whats the average goal time, whats the odds saying…. Just to name a few.
Looking at your sheets and you data will give you a lot of information. You’ll then be able to look at what the winning trades and the losing trades have in common.
I also grade all my trades, asking myself these questions
- are you following your rules
- are you staking correctly?
- are you only doing the trades that close the gap? (From where I am now and where I want to be!)
- are you grading your trades?
This really does highlight where I am going wrong, it’ll do the same for you. I grade my trades based on how well I followed the plan and rules and also I note down why I picked this game over other trades. I do this so that I can compare whether I picked the right one, as I know you’ll be thinking that.
Sometimes its by picking the wrong trades and documenting that we get to the right ones.
Why and what the hell do we do with that Ryan?!
Well now you can link that back to the way you pick your trades. If all your winning trades have X in common, well then every morning when you search your trades if you see a selection matching X you’ll add it to your list and know its a better selection.
You might even like me spot that your initial idea for your trade is wrong and it actually works better as something else. This is how I built my very profitable HT lay the current score strategy, only because I collected the data.
Sooooo many traders don’t collect data or enough data, so they spend so long getting excited about it to see it failed but hidden in there was the strategy they have always dreamt of. They threw the gold away!
That’s not going to you though now, you are on the path to becoming a Super Trader.
How do I know if I am on the right track?
1 – are you following your rules
2 – are you staking correctly?
3 – are you only doing the trades that close the gap? From where you are now and where you want to be?
4 – are you grading your trades?
Next steps, how do we scale it?
I don’t know about you but I am bloody shattered! This has been a monumental thing for me to write.
Let’s talk about now. Because at the start of this post you didn’t have a strategy, now you have one.
You’ve tested it, you have tweaked it & made it profitable.
Now, we have to scale that bad boy!!!
Most people, well they just up their stakes after a few good trades. That isn’t you at all.
I’ve said for years…
‘If you can’t control a small bank, you’ll never control a big bank.’
Despite what you may think and to squeeze an innuendo in here. It’s got nothing to do with size.
Just because you have a large bank doesn’t mean you will succeed. OR. Just because you have a small bank does not mean you will fail.
It’s all about execution and bank management. When you jump the stakes too soon you get out of control, you aren’t ready to trade at that level so you focus on the wrong things. You’ll enter a trade and when it moves against you, you’ll panic because the red is slightly larger than you are used to seeing, which means you’ll trade out too soon and miss it.
We want to control the stakes, manage the bank and build it slowly. Use 2-4% of your bank on each trade for a whole month, then the next month you will have hopefully increased the bank so now when you use 2-4% it will be larger.
This will happen every month ;)!
I know you are impatient buggers though, so go and google compound interest! It’s the 8th wonder of the world!
The only thing left is to now say….
You my padawan. You are now a super trader you can go out into the world and smash Betfair to pieces.
IF you take action, let’s be honest though are you going to?
You know you have the power with this post. The power to be profitable.
It takes traders on average 800 hours to be profitable and £1,700 in losses.
That’s real data from over 10,000 traders on Betfair. The reason those figures are that high?
Many many make many mistakes. I have shown you with this how to eradicate these.
Also be like Mark…..
If you want access to the best trading stats and community out there & this post in video format then you’ll want to get into the Betfair Trading Community.