At the start of the season I wrote a blog post giving some of my predictions for who was going down. This was using the Betfair outright markets which I have spoken about at length before because they are a goldmine when done right. I put a video together on how I use them here > Using the outright markets
If you need a recap of that it’s here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/premierleaguerelegation23-24/
Long and short of that was I went with:
- Wolves @ 4.4
- Bournemouth @ 3.7
I nearly went for Everton, I wish I had as they traded lower than the price at the time of 4.3. They might be ok now, only because Luton and Sheffield United are so bad! You could maybe add Burnley there too.
In that blog post (about using the Betfair outright markets) I spoke about how I break the season up on these long term trades into:
- First 10 games
- Next 10 games
- Last set of 10 games
- Last 8 games
Now is the time to break into that and talk about what has happened with those first ten games.
Let’s start with Wolves as I actually traded out of them pretty quick, I tweeted out about this because they went to 3.1 and I thought this was a great move. I took that price locking in a profit.
Back 4.4 → Lay 3.1 = 39% return on stake.
The reason?
They were really unlucky with a couple of their early results to be honest, especially the united one. I am always tying back to my ‘What has to happen question?’
When I watched Wolves I didn’t think my original idea around them was going to hold true for long, they were playing some decent football with just a few unlucky decisions and a little bit more quality they would do ok.
Trading out in hindsight was great because they now sit 14th in the table and they would be 6.0 to back. I like the ten game window but I knew in my gut Wolves from what I had seen would do well in those 10 now and actually be safe, especially when I saw the way other teams started.
Teams like our next pick. Bournemouth!
People told me I was crazy for this, saying things to me about the players they had bought and the new style they were going to start using.
I must admit when they played Liverpool at the start of the season and started well I thought ‘Ryan, you’ve made a huge mistake!’ but it was really clear to me that I have to wait and see how well they play against other teams.
Safe to say I am now trading out sitting 19th in the table playing 8 games losing 5 and drawing 3 is terrible form but great news for me especially when I can now trade out at 2.9.
Back 3.7 → Lay 2.9 = 26.2% return on stake.
Not too shabby that! I have to wait till May to get it but that then allows me to look at the next 10 games and see what moves I want to make.
While at present I have zero idea, I am actually leaning towards nothing for the next 10 and waiting till 20 games have been played then getting involved for the last 18 games of the season.
One thing I do know is that the Betfair outright markets have once again proven valuable.
