Podcast 133: Over 1.5 Goals Betfair Trading Strategies – Worth it?

By Ryan Carruthers •  Updated: 08/16/23 •  27 min read

Welcome back to another episode of the Betfair Trading Community podcast! In today’s episode, we dive into an intriguing topic: Over 1.5 Goals Betfair Trading Strategies  are they really worth it? Our knowledgeable speaker has been studying various trading strategies shared by our vibrant community, and they have some fascinating insights to share.

They recently acquired broadband and had the opportunity to review their old trading results. Through their analysis, they discovered that the over 1.5 goals market had a higher success rate compared to backing a second half goal. This revelation challenges the assumption that late goals are the key to profitable trading. 

Our speaker delves into the odds dynamics of the over 1.5 goals market, highlighting that the odds at the start of a match often align with the odds of a second half goal at halftime. They emphasize the importance of striking the right balance between odds and strike rate, particularly when backing odds around 1.2. 

Throughout the episode, our speaker shares their experiences with different trading markets, including laying the draw and both teams to score. They touch on the potential of creating a strategy for firsthalf goals but recognize that the over 1.5 goals market consistently proves to be more successful.

As always, our speaker encourages listeners to think critically about the concepts discussed and how they apply to their own trading journeys. They delve into the intricacies of Betfair trading, going beyond surfacelevel advice to explore new perspectives and ideas. 

Feedback from our engaged audience has been overwhelmingly positive, motivating our speaker to continue exploring these topics and providing valuable content for serious traders. They also address a listener’s query about strategy testing and shed light on the importance of utilizing data from markets that initially didn’t qualify.

So, if you’re ready to expand your trading knowledge and gain valuable insights from a seasoned trader, join us for this episode. Our speaker’s deep analysis, honest reflections, and recommended resources will undoubtedly make this an episode worth listening to. Let’s dive in and enhance our Betfair trading skills together!


00:00:35 Different markets for trading, including laying draw.

00:06:33 Broadband now, reviewed trading strategies, better 1.5 goals.

00:09:07 Strategy success, results surprised, different market profit.

00:12:58 Good traders have clear plans, make money.

00:14:21 Prepare for success in trading over 1.5 goals.

00:18:26 Ryan’s split strategy works with profitable results.

00:22:11 Forum offers brilliant learning, 1.5 goals market explored.

Key Topics & Bullets 

 Introductory remarks and overview of the episode

 Analysis of odds and strike rates

 Potential risks and loss impact

Importance of individual trader’s perspective

Positive feedback, plans, and advice

Value of forums and recommended resources

Discussion of profitable trading strategies and experiences

Dismissal of foolproof strategy claims

Honesty and preparation in trading and other endeavors

Mention of valuable learning resources and support


Martin Futter [00:00:00]:

Hello, guys, and welcome to another podcast from atfairtradingcommunity.com. We’re your host, Martin. And today, I’m gonna talk about the series. I’m gonna carry on with the series we’ve been doing, which is talking about strategies or markets on Betfair that people like to trade on football and kind of going through the positives and the negatives,

Martin Futter [00:00:20]:

of which, you know, on every market, there are many.

Martin Futter [00:00:24]:

The idea behind this is to give you this kind of balanced view and basically tell you, well, is this a market you look you’re looking to trade yourself? is it a good idea

Martin Futter [00:00:35]:

for you to trade this market, or is there actually a different market you should be trading? I’ve talked about laying the draw in the first one. so if you haven’t listened to that, please do. And the second one, I’ve gone a bit off pace, and I talked about both teams to score trading market. Because actually, I find that market really interesting. It’s not one I’ve had success with, but I do find interesting If you didn’t listen to that podcast, make sure you do. they’re both really good, really informative for traders, you know, I know what you, I know where you guys are at most of you, and I know that obviously anything informative, you know, you guys are serious traders, right? I think people who listen to this are serious traders. and that’s why I talk seriously with you. That’s why I get in quite indepth with some of the Betfair trading chat, kind of chat that I’ve never really been, be talked about or heard be talked about before. And so I I find it really interesting to do that for you guys. And I know from your feedback and comments you’re absolutely loving it. So I’m gonna carry on.

Martin Futter [00:01:36]:

And today’s subject is gonna be the over 1.5 goals market Probably, I would argue that the most popular trading market amongst traders, because I hear about this market more than any other market, more than over 2.5 over 3.5 over naught.5. for some reason, over 1.5 goals has kind of captured the imagination of traders everywhere. So I’m gonna talk a little bit about the positives and negatives as the markets as we try and kind of unwrap and understand, well, why is this market so popular? Why do people love trading this market specifically backing over 1.5 goals in particular.

Martin Futter [00:02:24]:

So I’m gonna start kind of going through a little bit of my history of the market because I find that that stuff really tends to help people. well, from what you guys have told me anyway, you guys love it when I can put that personal spin on it. It’s really important with all these podcasts and and the videos I do. that when you hear or watch them,

Martin Futter [00:02:42]:

make sure you’re kind of thinking about applying it to yourself. So, you know, when I talk about these positive negatives, think about them in your terms and go, oh, yeah. Would that work for me? Or, oh, yeah. I’m not sure that’ll work. You know, try and think about it from your because that’s the key. Right? There’s not I always say this because it’s still so prevalent. You know, whenever I see other trading video, on YouTube and things that aren’t from Betfair trading community. I noticed there’s no emphasis on you, the actual trader. Right? It’s more these guys talking about themselves or what they’ve done, but where’s the emphasis on you? Where’s the thought about here, but how can you apply this? So that’s what I really want you to think about. So I was first introduced heavily into the 1.5 goals market a few years ago when I was part of a of a kind of

Martin Futter [00:03:33]:

I guess it was a kind of forum. It’s very it’s only about 5 or 6 traders on there. Really good guys. Really good guys. and we use to we used to go for the over 1.5 goals markets, because one of the guys there, that was his that was his thing. and I just studied and studied and studied the over 1.5 goals markets, studied the teams that I thought were gonna have goals that we can,

Martin Futter [00:03:57]:

and traded you know, accordingly. And we actually did alright, from that. but one of the things that struck me was you know,

Martin Futter [00:04:07]:

it was very difficult to just trade over 1.5 oil to market from the start of the match because

Martin Futter [00:04:12]:

you know, sometimes you were taking odds of around 1.2. and when you’re backing something at 1.2, you don’t half need an amazing strike rate. to win the trade. And I’m gonna start off with that as a negative here, really, because the first negative of the F One 0.5 Volkswagen is know, if you’re backing it early in a match, actually, the odds are very short, and you need an incredible strike rate. to win. And and what will often happen is that even if you go on a good run, if you have 2 or 3 losses at those odds, it can wipe out, you know, a good amount of profit from, you know, over a set period of time. You know, 2 or 3 games could cost you 2 or 3 months of profit.

Martin Futter [00:04:54]:

it can be a brutal market in that respect, and that’s definitely a negative of it. Now, I know that one of the things a lot of people on BTC do to counteract that, And anyone who’s followed Ryan’s split stage strategy will know that he only gets involved on 30 minutes, so it’s Nil Nil. I really like this this kind of later entry. I’m always a big fan of later entry points. You know, when the odds start getting juicier, start getting more appealing, I think that you don’t need such a high strike rate, and you’re taking a lot of pressure off yourself in that situation.

Martin Futter [00:05:28]:

but, yeah, it’s a really interesting market, and I definitely think that one of the negatives can be that if you end up backing over 1.5 goals, which is what most people tend to do. you know, I don’t I don’t hear many people trying to lay,

Martin Futter [00:05:41]:

under 1.5 over 1.5 goals. it tends to be people going for goals, as always with football trading, we’d much rather go for goals and bet against goals. you know, it’s not a particularly pleasurable experience to to bet against goals happening because, you know, you’re absolutely sweating it every time the ball goes anywhere near a goal, or anyone takes a shot even from 40 yards. So It’s it’s really interesting that people do tend to pick that side of the market. Now I’m gonna counteract that negative with a real positive here.

Martin Futter [00:06:13]:

I’ve I’ve actually, over the last month or so, now I moved house, so I haven’t had broadband. For some reason, Virgin Media needed a whole month to get broadband into my house, even though the previous owner was a Virgin Media customer.

Martin Futter [00:06:28]:

Don’t ask me. Don’t ask why. I tried the customer services. That was no help.

Martin Futter [00:06:33]:

but anyway, I’ve got broadband now. It’s all good, but during that month, I had a lot of time to go through my old results. And I went back through months and months of results looking at, looking at the member’s strategies that we share with for a trading community looking at the strategies that members have come up with and being profitable with that they’ve shared with us and have been kind enough to share with us. And one thing I noticed on the whole was that the over 1.5 goals market had a better strike rate than backing a second half goal. Okay? Now I found that interesting because some of these strategies were geared more towards late goals. but not only that, you will often find the odds of over 1.5 goals at the start of a match, are the same as the odds of a second half goal at halftime. The reason being that if you’re back over 1.5 goals

Martin Futter [00:07:32]:

and you get to and you do get a goal for half time, it’s kind of that’s par Right? You need 2 goals. You got one goal halfway through a match. That’s par. You know, if we’re talking in golf terms, that’s kind of that’s acceptable. That’s okay. That’s what you’d expect. Now, the market then goes right. So your chance of 1 more goal is about the same as over 1.5 goals at the start of the match.

Martin Futter [00:07:56]:

What I find really interesting, like I say, is that over 1.5 goals was striking about 5% better than a second half goal. Now that got my interest because often I will trade the 2nd half goal market. So I was sitting there thinking, I I kinda get it now. I kinda get the obsession with over 1.5 because 5% is a massive difference. And the odds, you know, might experience of watching the odds, the odds are not suggesting

Martin Futter [00:08:24]:

that over 1.5 at the start of the match has a 5% better chance than a second I’ve got. seems to me that 2nd half goals, the odds are pretty much the same as over 1.5 goals if there’s a goal in the 1st half.

Martin Futter [00:08:39]:

So I found that I found that stuff really interesting.

Martin Futter [00:08:43]:

and obviously, you know, from someone who trades it and from a training perspective, there’s some I now need to look into a lot more. So I definitely find that stuff interesting. and I think as a trader, hopefully, you will as well. So that’s definitely a positive and something that I’m gonna look into going forward. And I really advise you to, you know, I I get a lot of guys who say to me, hey,

Martin Futter [00:09:07]:

what do you think of the strategy here on my results? And then I turned around and said, that’s good. Did you test all the other markets with the same selections? And they’re like, no, I just, you know, I discarded them if they didn’t qualify, etcetera. Well, there’s a lot of data there you can use. And also, you know, I might create a strategy for a first half goal. Watch the markets, trade it for ages, and go, do you know what? It’s not that great strike rate for first half goals, but hang on a second. The over 1.5 goal is striking 90%. You know, something like that, something crazy. And he go, Okay. I developed it for this reason, but actually, it’s worked out for another market. Well, who cares? Right? I don’t care if I’ve backed an I’ve I’ve created an under strategy, and I’m watching it and realizing it’s a hell of a strategy of ours back in overs.

Martin Futter [00:10:02]:

Right? The fact is all we’re really bored about is making profits. So, you know, some of my best strategies have come from trying to find something different. watching the results and hang on, there’s actually something in this, but not in the market I expected. it’s a bit like that philosophy I always use and I always suggested people. You know, if someone comes up to me and says, I’ve got this strategy, but it’s losing money hand over fist.

Martin Futter [00:10:26]:

I go, that’s brilliant. That’s brilliant. And then people just look stunning. Why? Why on earth is that brilliant? Well, if you’ve got a strategy that is awful and losing money hand over fist. Do the opposite

Martin Futter [00:10:40]:

if you’re backing over 1.5 goals in that strategy. Lay it.

Martin Futter [00:10:45]:

You know, whatever you’re doing, do the opposite, and you will make a lot of money because reality is if it’s really losing money hand over fist, I’m not just talking about a gradual loss that, you know, you won’t be able to beat with commission. I’m talking about losing money. Wow, you’ve got a strategy there that’s probably gonna make a lot of money if you just flip it. Like, I mean, in theory, it should, right? Basic maths. Basic maths. So

Martin Futter [00:11:10]:

that’s definitely a little positive and negative there for you already on the over 1.5 goals market.

Martin Futter [00:11:17]:

I suppose another another negative for me is I’m I’m much more comfortable in a situation where I’m only looking for one more goal.

Martin Futter [00:11:26]:

So as you know, if you followed me, a lot of times I’m entering the market 65, 70 minutes in the second half, maybe you know, 25, 30 minutes in the first half. I’m going for a first half goal.

Martin Futter [00:11:38]:

I tend to just want one more goal. The reason being I think it’s, a, it takes some pressure off. And, b, you know, if you just need one more goal, it’s easier to win the trade. Right? You know, if I’m going for 2 goals, sometimes I feel like, yeah, there could be a goal. then, what happens after that goal? Sometimes it might slow down. Something might happen.

Martin Futter [00:12:04]:

So, it’s really important for me to go, yeah. I need to go for that one goal. and if I go for 2 goals, okay, fine. But I need a strategy if there’s a goal because Am I staying in that train and just hoping it wins and just leaving it as an outright bet, or am I closing after a goal you know, what happens if the goal is late on? And then I closed for a loss when me if I’d left it, there might have been another goal. You know, I think

Martin Futter [00:12:33]:

you open yourself up a little bit more that

Martin Futter [00:12:36]:

with overall 1.5 goals trading in that way, you have to have a solid plan, which actually, when you look at what the people on Betfair tradingcommunity.com do,

Martin Futter [00:12:48]:

If you go on the forum, if you look at what the likes of Ryan and Alan and etcetera have done, they have a very clear plan and structure. And

Martin Futter [00:12:58]:

as much as sometimes I just think if you’re a good trader, just, you know, flow freely as a trader, when you look at the hard data, those with their plans are the ones who are making money. Right? When you look at it, just just look at Betfair trading community, follow followed a selection, look at what people are doing. Those with clear set plans are the ones who are making the money. And, you know, there’s a reason for that, isn’t there? I remember that saying, and I mentioned it a few times, you know, fail to prepare, you’re prepared to fail. Right? That’s the truest thing ever.

Martin Futter [00:13:33]:

You know, I mean, think about it right. So one thing you might not know about me is that I don’t drive. Right?

Martin Futter [00:13:40]:

I’ve I’ve got myself now in a situation where I’m gonna have to drive. when I was younger, I studied for a long time at uni. I lived in a city. I never really had the need to drive to love Zola. And by that point, you know, I was spending all my money on houses and, you know, trying to trying to get a house and get on the property ladder, etcetera.

Martin Futter [00:14:02]:

but like I say, now I’m in the house, I’m quite comfortable in and I don’t really wanna move out of any time soon. I can look into into learning to drive. Well, my point about this is if I learn to drive,

Martin Futter [00:14:15]:

and didn’t do any lessons and just took my test straight off the bat. So if I didn’t learn to drive,

Martin Futter [00:14:21]:

would I pass my test? I mean, I don’t think anyone would pass their test if they’d never driven. Never had any lessons. Bang just went and did the test. The reason is it’s that whole idea of you’re not prepared. Right? You wanna give when you’re trading a bit for it, you wanna give yourself that arsenal to be really prepared and kind of fight and, you know, fire those bullets when you need to, but also be strategic and and hold back and be clever when you need to. And if you don’t prepare, it’s very difficult to do that. And I feel like with over 1.5 goals, you have to prepare Okay? Now that can be a positive because you can say, well, those who prepare are doing well on this market, and that’s true. Look, like I say, Alan and Ryan smashing it. And if if you’re ever in doubt and you would just wanna follow something or learn, go and look at that over 1.5 goals thread on the forum. on the forum we run on betfairtrainingmedia.com because that’s massive. You know, people in there are just not only are they doing well for their trades, but almost just as important

Martin Futter [00:15:29]:

is the psychology and the thinking that goes on. It’s like, it’s advanced level trading for non advanced traders. Right? I think anyone can read that thread and really get into it, and they’ve really tried to explain it in layman’s terms, and and it’s just it’s fantastic what people are doing, and that’s the positive. But the downside is and the negative is if you’re not someone who wants to prepare,

Martin Futter [00:15:52]:

you’re not someone who wants to do the research plan, you know, kind of, if you’re not someone who really wants to do the advanced trading work, then over 1.5 goes,

Martin Futter [00:16:03]:

it’s a difficult market to trade, and you’re probably not gonna trade it. what you’re gonna do is you’re gonna gamble it and go, I’m just gonna bet it. And again, those who know me well know I’m not against set and forget betting, if you’ve tested it, and it works over the long run. What I am against, strongly against is getting involved in a trade, not knowing what you’re gonna do, if there’s a goal. And at what point, you need to know whatever time a goal is scored, you know, write it down. Okay. If there’s a goal in the first five minutes, this is what I do. if there’s a goal within the first 10 minutes, this is what I do. 15 minutes towards the end of the game.

Martin Futter [00:16:41]:

Write it down. Work out. What is your plan? test it. If you’re not sure, just test it. Watch the games and go, when should I have got out? Was I right to stay in in that moment?

Martin Futter [00:16:52]:

And, you know, obviously, with all this stuff, you know, you can do your homework really well, and then it works really well for you.

Martin Futter [00:17:00]:

I think one of the positives is

Martin Futter [00:17:03]:

kind of flipping one of the negatives where I talked about the fact you need 2 goals as a negative.

Martin Futter [00:17:10]:

Well, okay. But here’s here’s the positive side of that. And I always like to counter these arguments. You know, I’m kind of playing devil’s advocate for myself, which is a bit weird. but let’s go with it. Think about it this way. At least you only need 2 golfs, right, because if I’m trading over 2.5, there are 3.5

Martin Futter [00:17:28]:

No need do I need a lot of goals? I need them quickly because on the over 3.5, for example, the odds are gonna shoot out if there’s no goal in the first few minutes. Because when you need 4 goals, well, you probably need the early one. Right? Otherwise, the market’s just gonna go This ain’t happening. This ain’t happening, mate. So that, for me, is is a positive in terms of if you’re someone who’s been looking at over 2.503 point 5 because of the juicer odds, but not really sure what to do and kinda getting lost in certain things. I definitely think this could be a market that’s worth exploring.

Martin Futter [00:18:07]:

So, yeah, off the top of my head, I think they’re the main

Martin Futter [00:18:10]:

positives and negatives. Just trying to think if I can think of any other negatives off the top of my head.

Martin Futter [00:18:17]:

I think and and I think what’s important really is to just be aware that if you’re backing it, the start of the game, you will need a really high strike rate.

Martin Futter [00:18:26]:

I like I love what Ryan does with his split statory gets in at 30 minutes 50 minutes. I just think that works. and you see with the with the wins he has and the percentages, etcetera, that that stuff does work. and I think like with all these markets, really, for me, if you can get in later on and it’s profitable and you test it, it’s worth doing because I definitely want to use your rods and 1.2 personally. Right? You’re not really gonna catch me backing things at 1.21. 25 very often. And at times I do, to be honest, most of the times, a lot of the time afters, I think, why did I do that? That wasn’t wasn’t a good spot. I talked a little bit about a previous podcast about a really bad trade I made in the England Scotland game. really well received. I’m I’m really glad you guys enjoyed that because I know that not a lot of traders talk about the loo the losses, especially in things like podcasting is, like, I’ve noticed, no one ever talks about that. I don’t know if it’s a taboo subject for them, but the reality is as someone who’s, like I say, devoted my life to trade I sure as hell know, everyone loses, and everyone loses a lot, right, in trading. Everyone loses a lot of trades, but profitable traders make money in the long run because they win more than they lose. It’s simple maths. Alright? The reality is no trader wins all the time.

Martin Futter [00:19:48]:

In suriates me. I actually had a guy the other day.

Martin Futter [00:19:52]:

I had an argument with a guy. I mean, I actually can’t believe what some people argued thing. I had an argument with a guy who said,

Martin Futter [00:20:00]:

I’ve got a trading strategy that wins every time. I said to him, that that doesn’t exist.

Martin Futter [00:20:08]:

Right? That doesn’t exist.

Martin Futter [00:20:11]:

You know? And I’m not talking about Arbing by and not talk about match betting, which we know are very limited ways of making money. Okay? You can do well out of them.

Martin Futter [00:20:20]:

is a lot less risk. The big problem is they don’t last. Right? And and so many people come to us and say, oh, you know, I did match but it’s already dried up and I’m barely making anything. Now it’s time to really make some money,

Martin Futter [00:20:35]:

and learn to trade. And so it’s interest thing that I had to have an argument with a guy, and he was convinced he had an actual trading strategy that won every single bet 1 or every single trade 1. less a nonsense. Alright. It’s a nonsense. And anyone who starts saying that, it’s in a way, it’s good when someone says that because you can just switch it off. Right? because if anyone ever says that, I know I can just turn it off. I mean, I’ve seen I’ve seen videos of well respected, well, I say well, kind of well respected trader, who who’s making these sort of claims. And I just cannot believe it. It’s it’s painful to watch. but you know, it is what it is, but but but I love the fact that you guys love my honesty. I love the fact that, you know, when I talk about losing trade, which no one else ever really does,

Martin Futter [00:21:23]:

you respond well to that because you know that the reality of a good trader is that they do lose plenty of trades. you know, and ask any trade in reality, and they’ll all tell you the same. If they’re being honest, they’ll tell you the same thing. so, you know, and I think it’s important for you guys to know this stuff as well because what you don’t wanna feel is that, oh, no, I lost a trader. Must be a bad trader.

Martin Futter [00:21:47]:

1 lost trade or even a few lost trades does not make you a bad trader. It’s all about 100 of trades over time, monitoring the profit, working out what works for you, looking at your strategies and systems, and then implementing and pushing forward with the ones that work. And that’s why I’m such a big advocate bringing this back today of 1.5 goals of looking into this market and

Martin Futter [00:22:11]:

even if it’s not a market you wanna trade, just reading some of the stuff on the forum and looking into it because I just feel like the learning that can be done on there it’s it’s brilliant. You know, and some of the guys on there, you know, a top notch, you’ll know who they are if you’re on there. I don’t really need to mention, but and some fantastic stuff that goes on. I really like their 1.5 goals market. it’s one I’m gonna be looking at more. I haven’t. It’s not one I’ve extensively traded into in so much as I have when I’ve gone for one more goal in a game, you know, like a late goal, a goal late on, or a late far, I love first half goals at the moment, late first half goals. I think they can be golden because you just get such a good price. But anyway, guys, really hope this podcast has been helpful. Hopefully, it’s helping you make a decision whether this is a market you wanna trade personally. You probably tell I’m really passionate love this market myself. but the important thing is to remember that that doesn’t matter for you. Okay? nothing I do or have done it has any relevance to you as to whether it’ll be a good market for you, whether it’d be profitable for you, whether it’ll be something you wanna pursue. So really have to think about it yourself. and then make that decision. Okay, guys. Hope it’s been helpful. I’ll be back with another podcast, and I’ll cover another market strategy very soon.

Ryan Carruthers

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