Welcome to the Betfair Trading Community podcast, where we bring you the latest insights and strategies to enhance your trading success. In today’s episode, we tackle one of the most popular questions among Betfair traders: is lay the draw still profitable in 2021? We dive deep into the world of football trading and explore the ups and downs of this widely used strategy. Our expert speaker shares their personal experiences and the key factors to consider when implementing a lay the draw approach. From managing emotions to minimizing liability, we uncover the secrets to making this strategy work for you. Stay tuned as we discuss real-world examples and actionable advice to help you thrive in the Betfair trading markets. But first, we delve into the misconceptions surrounding lay the draw and address the criticism that it’s boring and ineffective. Get ready for an informative and eye-opening episode. Let’s dive in!
00:02:59 Lay the draw strategy always works in football.
00:05:34 Markets stay the same, people overreact.
00:09:16 Laying the draw for profit, minimizing liability.
00:13:33 Stick to your plan, avoid overreacting.
00:15:21 “Track data, find patterns, maximize profits in trading.”
00:18:23 Appreciation for the invitation extended to me.
Key Topics & Bullets
- Introduction to the podcast episode
- Episode title: 138 Lay The Draw Is it still profitable in 2021
- Importance of having a plan and sticking to it in trading
- Emotional reactions can lead to mistakes and deviation from the plan
- Chasing losses and making worse decisions due to emotional reactions
- Relying on emotions can be detrimental to successful trading
- The speaker’s belief in the profitability of the lay the draw strategy
- Thoroughly testing and ensuring a strategy has an edge before investing money
- Different approach to odds compared to Ryan
- Laying the draw when the draw price is shorter than the next goal price
- Preferring matches with similar team prices
- Expecting draw odds to drift after one goal is scored
- Advantages of laying the draw instead of laying the next goal
- Minimizing liability in trading
- Discussion on late-game trading and adjusting strategies
- Going for one more goal late in the game instead of laying the draw
- Cautionary note on not guaranteeing a profit with the lay draw strategy
- Asking Ryan how he reacts in such situations
- Speaker’s desire for more content and engagement
- Plan to tweet about the podcast on the Betfair Trading Communities’ Twitter account
- Encouraging followers to share their takeaways from the podcast
- Possibility of a prize for engaging with the tweet
- Applying the advice to listeners’ own trading
- Expressing gratitude to listeners and Ryan
- Teasing the next podcast episode
- Addressing criticism of the lay the draw strategy
- Belief that as long as football is decided on goals, lay the draw will work
- Specific times to enter a lay the draw trade
- Start of the game with an exit by 70 minutes if no goals
- Half time trade with holding until the end of the half
- Market reactions to money and events
- Market prices changing based on bets placed
- Simplifying trading and learning from experience
- Fear of success leading to overcomplication
- Practical experience being crucial in addition to theoretical knowledge
- Training the mind and continuous effort
- Not reacting to trading outcomes and understanding potential losses
- Assessing potential upside and downside of a trade
- Importance of understanding game situation and predetermined entry and exit points
- Importance of incorporating different perspectives in future podcasts
- Benefit of having different viewpoints on trading topics
- Persistence of the lay the draw strategy in football
- Speaker’s nearly 15 years of involvement in Betfair markets
- Markets following set patterns and not reacting quickly to new information
- Example of laying the draw in cricket test matches for consistent profitability
- Overreactions and panicking of traders leading to market anomalies
- Bookmakers basing market prices on where the money goes
- Actionable advice on late draw trading
- Gathering specific information before and after trades (e.g., goals, shots on target, corners)
- Use of an odds filter to find suitable games
- Tracking results and patterns for improved trading decisions
- Emphasizing the importance of simplicity and regular data analysis
Martin Futter [00:00:00]:
Hi guys and welcome to another episode from betfairtradingcommunity.com of our podcast and today we’ve got a very special special podcast for you because I have a special guest and you’re not gonna believe that I’ve been able to obtain him. You know, it’s I don’t know how how we got him on board, but we did. It’s our very own Ryan Carrabba’s. Hello, Ryan.
Ryan Carruthers [00:00:24]:
Hello, Martin. I mean, how am I supposed to follow that introduction? Everything I say from now is gonna be downhill off that introduction, isn’t it? I didn’t know you had that in you, to be honest.
Martin Futter [00:00:36]:
Well, the thing is, you know, it just made me laugh because I thought, we’ve got a special guest, you know, and that obviously it was it’s one of our own so I was I was being a bit I was joking about, really, is it wasn’t that difficult to get you, but it’s still great to have you here. He’s one of our own
Ryan Carruthers [00:00:52]:
He’s one of our own Harry Kane. I like that. I think, well, this is good for our I don’t know how we’re gonna decide though because what we do with YouTube is I joked about having a competition with you that you know, who would get the most views. But if we’re both on the same podcast, how are we gonna decide who’s the winner?
Martin Futter [00:01:14]:
I think if I introduce it, I’m the winner. And if you inch reduce the podcast. You’re the winner.
Ryan Carruthers [00:01:19]:
Oh, well, I think we need I think we need something more than that. And I was saying to you before we did this podcast as well about Now, I’m gonna put a tweet up. So it’ll go from Betfair Trading Communities, Twitter, so make sure you follow that. It will be betfairbigtbigc and it’ll just be about this podcast. So what I would love you guys to do is head on over to that tweet. You’ll see it. and just let us know what your sort of takeaway was from this podcast. We wanna know what the big takeaway was And, yeah, just interact with us on there. And you might find that every single month, if it takes off and if it works and you guys actually engage with it, we might have a little prize for people that tell us what their big takeaway was.
Martin Futter [00:02:05]:
Yep. That’s a good idea. And that’s the thing. We wanna we wanna incorporate both us into these podcasts moving forward. So, you know, if you do listen to this and a bit of success, obviously we’ll carry on so yeah, like I say, we do wanna get these going to 2 of us and I think bring in someone, you know, office up and doing these podcasts a long time on my own and you know, I think sometimes it’s just good to have someone to bounce off and obviously Ryan will have different ideas to me on certain things. So it’s important that you guys are getting all the best perspectives you can get on trading and today’s topic we’re gonna talk about is laying the draw in football. so, we’re gonna give basically our opinions on that. so, Ryan, Obviously, you’re a massive advocate of laying the draw in football. What’s kind of your favorite time to place that, you know, when do you place that trade in general?
Ryan Carruthers [00:02:59]:
Oh, that’s a good question. I mean, like you say, I’m a huge favorite and a a big advocate of lay the draw. And I know that a lot of the naysayers are going, oh, load the draw is boring, and, oh, it doesn’t work. But until the rules of football change, then later draw will always work because football is decided on goals. There’s either goals or there’s not, and then that means there’s a winner or loser or droves. Simple. So for me, there’s two times that I will enter a lay the draw. The first one is the one that I’ve been doing for 10 years. I mean, I’ve made a whole career out of this. and I get in pretty much from the start. so I’m in at the start and I’m out by 70 minutes if there is no goals. And then the second one is a very similar it’s a later draw trade, but I’m getting in at half time. And I am pretty much in for the whole half there.
Martin Futter [00:03:50]:
Yeah. So that’s good. That’s good to get in and then so you’re ex you’re exiting after that.
Ryan Carruthers [00:03:57]:
Yeah. I’ll exit on the sort of second half one. I’ll I’ll exit if there is a goal. I’ll take my profit and I’ll move on. If there’s not a goal, then I am pretty much out by sort of 70, 75, 75 minutes, to be honest with you.
Martin Futter [00:04:14]:
Yeah. So, and that’s the the key thing with that is obviously that’s something that you’ve researched and looked into over the years. Obviously, your vet green strategy, that’s well known within the Betfair trading community forum. So if you’re a member guys, get on the forum, look into the Beck Green strategy. It’s actually on our trading section on the website as well. You can read a free, proper write up of that strategy And I remember, Ron, actually, I I started following that strategy before I even well, I think Betfair trading community had just started but basically I followed it when Beckerine was a thing. so that’s how old ish I mean, how many years ago ago did you start that strategy?
Ryan Carruthers [00:04:58]:
Oh my god. So I started that strategy Wow. Well, I was eighteen when I started on Betfair. I’m 33 now. And Jesus Christ. Am I one of the longest running traders? Like, is that crazy?
Martin Futter [00:05:17]:
so I must have been – -putting, I think, for putting out advice and content, definitely.
Ryan Carruthers [00:05:23]:
That is ridiculous. so it must have been sort of 19 when I started that lay the draw strategy. So I’ve been using that for a very, very long time.
Martin Futter [00:05:34]:
Wow. So that’s, like, what, nearly 15 years now. Yeah. And it still works. That’s the thing. That’s the thing I find with a lot of Betfair markets is that, and I think I talked about this a bit the other day that when you do find something that has an edge, you can beat the market. The market doesn’t and react, you know, the markets tend to follow set patterns and stay the way they are. I mean, cricket’s a great example of this. when we laid it funnily enough laying the draw in cricket, in test matches, and the market just never ever catches up it never seems to have the right odds and year after year you can just make money laying the draw in test cricket and that’s what we’ve done but it just it always kind of surprises me that the markets don’t correct themselves but I think a lot of what a lot of people don’t realize is that a lot trading, especially on football, people start to overreact to things and a lot of the money being pumped into the markets from people are panicking, you know, that either their first bet isn’t going the right way or that they their trade isn’t going how they’d hope. and so, you know, obviously bookmakers, they don’t the thing with bookmakers is they use statistics and things, but really the way they build their market is just purely based on where the money is going. You know, so if loads of money is coming in on something, they shorten the price. That doesn’t matter who it is. you know, talking about Harry Kane earlier. If Harry Kane walked into a bookmaker and put a £1,000,000 on a bet or did it on bet then? the price will come crashing in. Now, doesn’t necessarily mean he’s got great information or he’s a good trader. It’s just the fact that markets react to money, right? So and again, I think I think that’s I think that’s one of the reasons why you were able to profit off that strategy for so long, Ryan?
Ryan Carruthers [00:07:30]:
Yeah. I agree. you know, markets react to to money. And when the when the market is live and things are happening, money’s coming in. And then when when goals come in, it’s an event. So people will then start, you know, backing various different things. So the market will react to that. There’s a goal that’s happened. So maybe, like, Man City have gone 1 or up, so people are gonna start going, oh, Man City actually gonna win this game. And a lot of people then are back in man city, so their price is gonna is gonna change, and then something else has to happen. So you know, the dog price is is going out. The draw is probably coming in a little bit as well, going out, doing whatever it’s doing. So, yeah, it just works. You know, I I’ve said for years that you don’t need to over complicate trading. I think too many traders think that it’s it’s got to be complicated. And I think there’s a little bit of probably self sabotage in there, like a fear of of success. which is a whole, like, new topic that we could talk about. I always think that it’s like driving a car. You know, you can go and get driving lessons, and you can do that intensive one that’s a week. They’ll teach you how to drive, but they won’t teach you how to actually react on the road. You need to be out on the road to do that. the same with trading. It’s like, I can teach you to trade probably in one YouTube video. Like, I can teach I’ve I’ve given away strategies on YouTube that I use. I did a video, like, 2, 3 weeks ago where I literally broke down everything I’m doing on Betfair. I gave all of my strategies away everything, But to actually train your mind and use your mind, that that takes weeks months and years, to be honest. And it’s still something that I have to to work on all the time.
Martin Futter [00:09:16]:
Yeah. And and for me, we’ve laid the draw. So I kind of have a slightly different approach to Ryan in terms of odds. So when I lay the draw, it’s usually because the draw price is a lot shorter than the next gold price. and what I like to do is find matches where the 2 teams are relatively similar prices So let’s say it’s halftime in a match, and you know, the home teams let’s say they’re around 3. Let’s just say everything’s around 3.0, right? So the home team, the away team, and the draw. Now, I quite like to lay the draw in this situation because I know that it doesn’t really matter who scores the goal. The draw odds should drift. Right? So all I really need in that situation is one goal and that’s profit. But also I’m not having let’s say the next goal odds, let’s say laying, you know, the next goal to be scored is 1.2 or backing it is 1.2 laying around 6.0. Well, I don’t really feel comfortable laying at those odds. Yes. I expect to go. If I can lay the draw at 3.0, rather than laying next goal at 6.0, I’ve got a much less liability in that situation, which as a trader is something I’m always thinking about. How can I get good profit but still not be maxing out and having massive liability is. so I think later draw, I think a lot of people who go for it and we’re going to talk actually in the next podcast about the late goal. So I won’t talk too much about that I think people who do trade the late goal, don’t dismiss the lay the draw option, okay? because you know, even if it’s late on in the game, if the odds are still quite far apart, it’s worth doing. Now, what you’ll find is that as it gets later in the game, it’s not worth laying the draw because the next goal odds will pretty much be the same odds you might as well just go for one more goal, lock in the win because you know, with later draw, one thing you’ve got to be a little bit wary of on lay drawers that when a goal goes in, you’re not guaranteed a profit in any situation. I’ll tell you why because minute later, if another goal goes in and Betfair hasn’t unsuspended and you haven’t managed to cash out or trade out, you know, you’re in trouble in that situation. and and it can be a bit of a sticky spot. I just wondering Ryan, how do you react in that situation?
Ryan Carruthers [00:11:51]:
I don’t react is the honest truth. It’s, I think one of the things that you’ve got to understand with trading is that anything can happen. And that is a a real possibility. So one of the things that I I do before I do any trade is I think about sort of a few questions, you know, what’s the upside, what’s the downside, and can I handle the downside? So I’d go through those questions. So what’s the upside on a lay the draw? Well, I can make 30, 40, even 50% return on my on my stake. Great. Okay. What’s the downside? Well, I could lose a big chunk of my stake and my liability. how could that happen? Well, that could happen by the game being a draw or, you know, 2 quick goals. So a a 1 nil and then a one one. And then can I handle the downside? Yeah. I can handle the downside. How can I handle the downside? Well, my experience will help me handle the downside. What can I what can I do about that game? So a lot of people panic in that situation. But you’ve got to realize what’s actually happening in the game. You know, what what point is that happening in the game? If this is happening in the first half, why are you even panicking? You know, you know, you know your entry point. You know your exit point. You’ve already predetermined them. So for me, if I’m waiting until 70 minutes, nothing has changed because exactly the same as a Nil Nil. In fact, actually, it’s probably better because I know that the teams can score. So it’s actually showed me that defenses can be breached. Fantastic. Yeah. But if that hap sorry, if that happens later, it’s just part of part of parcel of trading for me. It doesn’t happen that often.
Martin Futter [00:13:33]:
Yeah. And I think and I think the thing is that it’s clear that you’ve got a plan you stick to it. Right? See, this is what I’m talking about when I’m when I’m mentioning about people who just react and overreact to things. That’s not a good way to trade. So the reason the markets are often badly priced and the reason we’re able to make money, you know, over time is the fact that people react and get worse. So if you got into a situation where you thought you’d want your tray, then it gets to 11. You didn’t have a chance to cash out and you’re staring at a red screen and looking at a loss. A lot of people that that affects their mind and then they maybe make a mistake, you know, they don’t stick to their plan. Maybe they just take that loss at that moment because they’re so infuriated about it or they just let the trade run the whole time. They were planning get out but they go no because I should have won it. So I’m just gonna let it run and they they run down a 100% of their estate because there’s not another goal. and then obviously a lot of the time that leads to worse things and more chasing and once you get into those kinds of habits, not a good thing and obviously it’s something you need to break. so I think just kind of just kind of to round it off really. my perspective on lay the drawers that it’s it’s been a staple of Betfair trading for years and years. is. I think it’s a it’s a great strategy to adopt and employ. I think anyone who’s doing it, obviously, as we always say test test test test before you put your money on. Make sure it’s a good strategy. Make sure you’ve got an edge on the market. and yeah, that that’s kind of my strategy. So, Ryan, what’s your kind of concluding thoughts on it?
Ryan Carruthers [00:15:21]:
Yeah. I mean, I’m gonna go in favor of later draw, and hopefully give you some actionable advice of what I would do. You know, you you said just then, and I’m a huge advocate of this as well. Test test test. So and I banged on about this for ages, but you think about what has to happen for that strategy to to be profitable, then get that information before your trade and after. So, for example, if you wanna do the the lay the draw from the start, well, what has to happen? Well, there has to be a goal between 0 and 7 for you to be able to get out. Okay. We’ll go and find that information. And then what else has happened? Well, we have to have shots on target. We have to have shots off target. We have to have corners. how many of those do we need for a goal? Well, you can go and find that information out. Once you’ve got all of that data, then that gives you a list of games to to go and lay the draw on. You know, I have an odds filter on that, and I’ve I’ve shared this filter on YouTube for free, and also you can get the exact selections that I do from the the community, PTC, you can get my filter. It’s on there. And then from there, it’s like, well, why don’t we track the results? So if we know that we need 3 shots on target for a goal, well, are we tracking shots on target? for our selections that we’re doing because what you can do there is you can start to see the patterns between the winners and the losers. And once you start seeing the patterns, then you can start it gives you really, really good data to know what you’re looking for. So this is how you can then extend your trades. You can reduce them in terms of like, oh, well, this isn’t going to plan. Well, actually, I’ve got the data that says if it follows this pattern, I should probably get out before so you maximize in your profit. That’s just exactly what I do. I take that mentality into my trades and just follow that. And it doesn’t need to be super complicated. It’s just literally what has to happen and then track that data So you could find those trades and then you track that data and then it you put away half an hour a week or a month, look through your data, see what the winners the losers have in common, grab yourself a nice coffee and just do that. And that, that alone is like the best advice I can give you for trading on on the exchanges.
Martin Futter [00:17:39]:
Yeah, that’s that’s fantastic advice, Ryan. And guys, like like I always say, and like we always say, think about how you can up buy what you’ve heard today to your trading, okay? Because it’s great hearing from me and Ryan, great hearing our is our histories, but the reality is what we’re really interested in and what really matters is your trading, okay? So apply this to yourself. Work out what you can do. Is this a market you want to trade maybe? It’s one you’ve looked at, but you’re not really sure how to approach it. Well, Ryan’s given you some incredible advice on how to do that to say. so yeah guys, thank you for listening to our podcast. Thank you, Ryan. for joining me today. you know, I look forward to next cast, and we’ll be back with another one soon.
Ryan Carruthers [00:18:23]:
Thank you for having me.