Podcast 171: BEWARE! The Martingale Strategy Trap…

By Ryan Carruthers •  Updated: 08/16/23 •  26 min read

Welcome back to another episode of the Betfair Trading Community podcast! In today’s episode titled “BEWARE! The Martingale Strategy Trap…”, our host delves into the controversial world of the Martingale strategy and its pitfalls. We’ve touched upon this topic before, but the host is irked by the association of their name with this awful staking plan. They express concern about new traders falling into the trap, as some individuals adamantly promote the Martingale strategy as a foolproof method. With real-life scenarios and statistical insights, our host analyzes the dangers of doubling bets after a loss and risking large sums of money just for a small profit. Alongside sharing their frustrations with negative behavior in trading groups, they also emphasize the importance of creating a safe haven within the Betfair community. So grab your headphones and join us as we explore the Martingale strategy, debunk misconceptions, and provide practical advice for successful Betfair trading. Let’s get started!


00:00:00 “Podcast discusses risky Martin Gales strategy trap.”

00:04:34 $5 trades result in significant losses, misleading traders.

00:09:32 Losing money due to misleading investments is scary.

00:11:55 Interesting character peddling questionable financial advice.

00:14:15 People don’t care about you in trading.

00:17:44 Online groups have terrible people, especially free ones. Many people have bad experiences with them. Internet anger and jealousy are concerning. Our safe haven is unique and can’t be replicated. Attempts to copy us have failed.

00:22:24 “Ask statistician, avoid risky betting strategies.”

00:23:40 Increase stakes after winning, be cautious with losses. Contact betfairtradingcommunity.com for support.

Key Topics & Bullets 


Martin Futter [00:00:00]:

Hello, and welcome to another podcast from Betfair Trainingcommunity.com with me or host Martin. I’m gonna talk today about something that has concerned me for a long time. I’ve spoken a little bit about this quite a long time, go. but it’s something that raises its ugly head time and time again, and it’s what I like to call the Martin Gales strategy trap. Now first of all, if you don’t know what Martin Gail is, it’s a system where Let’s say you place a bet and it lose. Let’s say you place a £10 bet and it loses. And you’re, you know, you’re trying to win at odds of evens or 2.0 on betfair. You’re basically just trying to make £10 profit worth £10, but the strategy would then say on your next bet you bet £20 so that on the same odds, so that you would win £20 which would cover the £10 loss and give you that initial £10 profit. Sounds lovely. Right? Sounds really nice. I think this is one of the things why people get tempted. And then if that £20 bet lose as well, we’ll just place a £40 bet. then if that one loses, we’ll just place an £80 bet at evens. If that one loses 160, that one loses 320, if that one loses 6.40. If that one loses 1280, right, so on and so on. Doesn’t take long, does it? So you get to a really high number you’re risking. And remember, you’re risking that really high number just to win back your money you’ve lost and £10 profit, or for a £10 profit. Now, one of the things I really hate about this style and strategy of staking money is that here’s one thing I really hate that that my name’s involved. I hate that my name’s on this, Martin Gayle. Why why have they chosen my name for this? It’s an insult to me because this is such an awful staking plan. And what really it angers me What really angers me is that there are there are people out there who try and convince new traders this is some kind of viable staking method. There are still a lot of people out there. There’s a lot of systems and strategies, that use Martin Gail as a way to try and claim that, oh, this is a great strategy and it can’t lose because All you have to do is keep doubling your money, and eventually you’ll win. You know, how comfortable will you feel when you get to and it will happen when you get to that £1200 mark, risking all that just to win back a tenor. you know, seriously, how how good will you feel about that? That’s the question you have to ask yourself because The thing with Martin Gayle is everyone expects,

Martin Futter [00:03:06]:

well, I’m gonna win 1 eventually. I’m gonna win 1 eventually. And you know what? You probably will,

Martin Futter [00:03:12]:

but there will come a time where you don’t. There will come a time where you can get a run of 10 even shots losing. In fact, the strategy that we’re talking about a lot at the moment is Matt’s under 2.5 goals strategy. that’s been tested. We’ve got like 900 games on it. It’s 70 points up. So if you’d have been using a £100 stakes, you’d have made 7 grand profit. in a month, right, outstanding stuff. The thing is, of this strategy, there’s been two points during testing where it’s had 10 losers in a row, and most of the selections are around evens. So this is a perfect example. of how Martin Gail

Martin Futter [00:03:55]:

would have been hit hard, but even in a really, really profitable strategy so

Martin Futter [00:04:00]:

far. if you’d have been doing Martingale, you probably would have stopped, 1st and foremost, because I don’t think most people could indeed 10 double ups. Let’s just do it now. So let’s say your first one is £10. He leaves that double it, 20. He leaves that double it 40. 80, 160, 320,640,180. 2560.

Martin Futter [00:04:29]:

Your next one is over

Martin Futter [00:04:34]:

$5. Right? So in this scenario on your 10th trade, which also lost by the way. So, actually, on 11th one, when you’re using 10 grand, to win a tenor, right, $10 to win 0.1 percent of that money back as a profit. And if he leaves it, that’s another $10 lost on top of the $10 you’ve already spunked, I mean, this is, this is crazy, and that’s only 10. and it’s happened twice in the testing period of 900 games. It’s, you know, mine go is so wrong on so many levels. And that’s why it makes me angry because there’s people out there that peddle it, and they tell new traders, and I don’t blame any new trader for falling into this trap, by the way. I actually think that a lot of unfortunately, A lot of traders are told that this is some kind of, you know, staking strategy that will work for them. It’s crazy. It’s absolutely crazy. But it’s the way it is. You know, people, people will use this as a way of saying, well, look, use my strategy because

Martin Futter [00:05:57]:

you know, all you have to do is just keep doubling it, and you won’t end up, you can never lose.

Martin Futter [00:06:01]:

As long as you’re, you know, what they don’t tell you is as long as you’re willing to put the $10 on at some point, or as long as you’re because the thing is, even we’re talking about huge amounts of money. Right? For most people, $10 is a huge amount of money. Well, okay, but what about when you just get to the £80

Martin Futter [00:06:20]:

mark trying to win that tenor? good you what about when you get to 16320?

Martin Futter [00:06:25]:

That’s serious money. Right? Most of us each month, £320. That’s serious money. Right? Are you seriously telling me that you’d be happy, you’d be confident putting that money on having already lost about that same amount? on your initial attempts at winning that £10. You know, this is the thing. People aren’t prepared for it either.

Martin Futter [00:06:50]:

you know, it’s not like people are going, well, I’ve got $10. I don’t care if it loses. I’ve not really met anyone who’s ever said by the way. I’ve not really ever met anyone who’s ever gone. I’ve got $10 to use on trading. I don’t really care about losers. most people don’t wanna lose money.

Martin Futter [00:07:08]:

And the scary thing is that traders are you know, coming in and getting encouraged to do this. and I always just think the thing, the thing here’s the thing. Here’s the truth kind of behind Martin Gail. right, from an insider perspective. If your strategy is good enough, if what you’re doing is good enough, if you’re teaching, etcetera, etcetera is good enough, there should never ever be a need for you to increase your stakes. Right?

Martin Futter [00:07:42]:

just because you lost one trade.

Martin Futter [00:07:45]:

You should be able to win that money back naturally through your and being good, keeping the same staking strategy, keeping the same stakes. Because if you can’t, If your only way to reclaim your money is to keep doubling and doubling and doubling, then how do you have a good strategy? your strategy can’t hold up just using the same stakes over and over,

Martin Futter [00:08:11]:

we can’t be profitable.

Martin Futter [00:08:12]:

Right? But this is not a and by the way, this is not opinion. This is important to know today. What I’m telling you is not opinion. This is mathematical fact. Right? If your strategy cannot use the same stakes and make a profit over time, it’s not a profitable strategy. You know, if your only way of recovering money is to keep doubling stake, doubling stake,

Martin Futter [00:08:37]:

you know, haven’t got a profitable strategy, but here’s the here’s the here’s the crucial bit, the really crucial bit.

Martin Futter [00:08:45]:

You, I will say If you keep employing that over and over, that strategy,

Martin Futter [00:08:52]:

you will lose your bankroll. right, you will lose your bankroll. And that’s when you’re trying to win a tenor for 10 grand. Let’s say you have a bankroll of 10 grand, which most people don’t have one that high, but let’s say you do.

Martin Futter [00:09:07]:

You will lose your bankroll easily doing Martin Gail. easily. I mean, it’s scary. Sometimes people do it on odds on shots. You know, they’re back all, 1.25 got, they put a £100 on to win 25, then they’re like, oh, no, I’ve lost that. I’d better put on, you know, £200 and

Martin Futter [00:09:29]:

It’s just crazy. It’s just crazy what goes on.

Martin Futter [00:09:32]:

And it doesn’t take a lot, even with that, to lose a hell of a lot more money. So it’s scary. It’s scary that this stuff gets peddled. I’ll tell you, actually, I’ve got quite an interesting story. So I never knew what Martin Gayle was, when I was a kid, obviously. I don’t think I don’t think we we don’t get taught at school. The first time I ever heard about Martin Girl, it was probably about 18. I was at someone’s house, It was

Martin Futter [00:10:04]:

a girl I went to school with, and we’re just hanging out with some friends.

Martin Futter [00:10:10]:

I mean, she’d been fostered and it was her dad, like her real dad. Oh, was it her real? I think it was her real mom’s partner. But anyway, I mean, that probably kind of tells you about the sort of low key was. you know, it wasn’t exactly

Martin Futter [00:10:29]:

the most educated manner. I’ll put it that way. I don’t wanna say anything disparaging. but, you know, the kind of guy who could tell, like, a few drinks and,

Martin Futter [00:10:38]:

like to just go and punt money. And he told me about this horse racing system that couldn’t lose. And he I said, okay. What’s that then? You know, because I I was really interested in trading and betting already by that age. And he said to me, here’s what you do, Martin.

Martin Futter [00:10:58]:

You pick a number of the horse, alright, or the stool, whatever. I can’t remember which. Pick a number. If it loses, you double it, bet on it again. And you keep doing that till you win back your money and some profit.

Martin Futter [00:11:17]:

That was his strategy. Right? Now you you might be listening to this and thinking, well, that’s just stupid. You know, he’s got no information on the horses. Well,

Martin Futter [00:11:29]:

what he’s doing is no, no less worse than anyone else who’s

Martin Futter [00:11:34]:

doing Martingale’s strategies, to be honest, It’s really not because I don’t care what research you’re doing. If you’re using a staking plan that can lead to your bank, going bust quickly. I mean, it doesn’t even take time.

Martin Futter [00:11:53]:

then, you know,

Martin Futter [00:11:55]:

I don’t think it’s any worse. And I think the fact that this this kind of interesting character I didn’t have anything against the guy. I quite like the guy. I don’t think he was the guy who should have been handing out financial advice. Don’t get me wrong. But it’s interesting that this is the guy who’s peddling this strategy. And, yeah, I see so many you know, people on the internet who claim to be, you know, I’ve got this great strategy x, y, and zed. And then this is what you’re employing. I mean, I remember, this thing called, was it little acorn? Years years ago, someone sent me a PDF of little acorns, and I read through it.

Martin Futter [00:12:36]:

and they were going on about all all we do is we lay favorites in horseracing. the strategy just really had no I mean, you read the strategy and there was no strategy to it. It was just we’re gonna keep laying Oh, but if you lose, don’t worry, you can double it. And as soon as it started saying that stuff, it lost validity with me. And I was like, woah.

Martin Futter [00:12:58]:

You know, and this was before I as as educators, I am now about trading, but then I saw it because because my theory on this is always Well, if Why would you need to do Martingale? If you’ve got a good strategy, why would you need to do Martingale?

Martin Futter [00:13:15]:

I think there’s two reasons people do mind and go. The first is they don’t actually have a good strategy, and they probably know that deep down in their head.

Martin Futter [00:13:22]:

They probably know that, and that’s why they do Martin Girl because they know, well, the only way, you know, the only real chance I’ve got is to keep taking these huge financial risks. and then maybe I’ll get a little bit of a reward. And I think the second type of person who does it is the type of person who just can’t stand losing just can’t stand a losing day, and would rather risk huge financial amounts of money win back a tiny amount so that they can feel the relief of salvaging, you know, loads of lost money.

Martin Futter [00:13:54]:

then just lose a tenor and be okay with it. That that’s the truth. Right? It’s a hard truth, I think, for some people. But it is the truth. And like I say, it’s important to remember, I’m not having a go at anyone who’s fallen into the Martin Gayle strategy trap because I think there’s a lot of people out there who don’t care,

Martin Futter [00:14:15]:

right? And that’s this is the base honest truth. I think there’s a lot of people out there that don’t care about you as a trader. They don’t care if you lose money. They don’t really care. And it sickens me. It sickens me that there’s people out there like that, but there are, you know, we see it in all walks of life, we see corruption left. Right? That’s all it is. It’s just corruption in my eyes. That’s what we it’s kind of like one of the big things when I joined Betfair trading community dotcom. One of the big things I wanted to combat. Combat was all that corruption. Was all that cynicism and skepticism within the betting and trading industry. And so many of our members now were people who got burned by other companies, by other

Martin Futter [00:15:00]:

strategies, The amount of people that sign up to betfairtradingcommunity.com

Martin Futter [00:15:04]:

and say to me, you know, Martin, I was burnt on this. I really wasn’t sure whether to join you because I was just so put off. And and it disheartened me so much. Not really, because they didn’t they weren’t sure about joining Betfair trading community just because of some other idiot company. But because of the fact that, you know, they had had fallen victim to this stuff, and I hate I hate that happening. I really do, guys.

Martin Futter [00:15:32]:

you know, so if you are anyone who’s gone through anything like this and you need support, come to us Right? We’ve all looked after you. We’re we’re,

Martin Futter [00:15:40]:

you know, I mean, that’s one of the things people say to me, Martin, why why do you do what you do with that? Why do you put so much time and effort? in.

Martin Futter [00:15:49]:

you know, and clearly clearly, you don’t have to, and that’s right. You know, Ryan Adam, no one no one’s ever told me I need to put this much time and effort in.

Martin Futter [00:16:00]:

you know, I could probably I could be one of those guys at a job who just coasts does the bare minimum. you know, I’m I’m a I’m a shareholder in betfairtradingcommunity.com. That is the way it is. There’s no get out. There’s no get out to get rid of me or Ryan or Adam. But the reason this kind of trinity works so well is that we do come from the right place. We do have compassion and a heart for members for nonmembers. Yeah. I’ve helped so many nonmembers over the years.

Martin Futter [00:16:33]:

so it’s not just a case of that. Obviously, if you remember, you’re gonna be getting much quicker, or easier, you know, better support, but, you know, we still do what we can for the people who don’t sign up. But it’s interesting, right, because that fairtradingcommunity.com has kind of been created almost as a safe haven for traders to come and work together.

Martin Futter [00:16:57]:

you know, how many members do we have? It’s funny. we get a lot of members, and I’m always a bit like, I’m amazed how many people do this. who just sign up to be part of a social network with the traders and work with other traders. And you know what? Just have fun. Just talk to people. just learn about trading, just do all these different things. They might not have any interest in the football software. They might not have any interest in horse racing software. and they are just literally a part of the community because of that. And I love that. I love the fact that, you know, we’re we’re almost like I almost feel like we’re the social club for Betfair Traders. And because of the fact that you become a member and you’re part of something special,

Martin Futter [00:17:41]:

you know, we attract the the right people.

Martin Futter [00:17:44]:

I always feel that way. You know, when I see these other, you know, groups and things elsewhere, especially like the free ones. a terrible kind seems to be terrible kinds of people in those groups in general. obviously, you know, a lot of the nice guys kind of get caught out by that, I think. Again, a lot of how many people have come to me over there that said, mine, I part of this group, and it was horrible. People, they’re really having to go each other, saying horrible things, you know, being quite nasty, I don’t understand why. And I always explain to people the thing with the internet is there’s a lot of people who sit there at home and they’re angry. They’re angry about situations They’re angry. Yeah, me and Ryan, you know, you might have seen it online. The amount of a lot of places like this don’t live cuts because we’ve called them out in the past. and so they’re so kind of vitriolic towards me and Ryan sometimes. It makes me laugh. I mean, I don’t luckily, I don’t look at any of that stuff anymore, but they hate some of these people have in their hearts. you know, it’s quite worrying, really. You know, it’s just think, wow, I mean, what happened to you in your life that you you just hate someone so much that you’ve never met? you know, nothing about, essentially, you’re just jealous of the success that you’ve had. But, you know, that’s the way the world is. We see it with how how often have you seen it with celebrity culture. The same sort of thing develops. so I think it’s really important that we have this safe haven that isn’t like that. It isn’t like other places on the internet isn’t like other Betfair trading forums. It’s very, very unique what we do, and it can’t really be replicated. you know, I know people have tried and failed, and it’s, you know, it always makes me laugh when someone says, oh, well, this this guy is gonna do the same thing or they’re gonna break off and do their own thing. And then you see it and you’re like, oh, it stopped. It didn’t last more than 2 months. I mean, I don’t know if anyone ever remembers like, clutch and win Ronnie. Do you remember him from the early days? And he kind of tried to split off and do his own thing. you know, we actually will we actually helped him, because we thought, well, if that’s what you wanna do, let’s go for that. And, It’s really funny because he then just went, and I’m gonna do it all on my own.

Martin Futter [00:20:01]:

2 months later, no one’s ever heard from him since.

Martin Futter [00:20:04]:

And, you know, and, this is the thing. Right? It’s important to create these environments because how important is culture? And now this is, I think this is maybe the the thing I I’ve just thought of this right now, but this is something that maybe I should stress more in a lot of these things. Culture matters, right? culture matters, and I’ll tell you why because there’s a theory that’s often bounced around that you’re most like the five people that you hang around with the most. Well, you’re probably most like the traders that you hang around with the most. And what what would you rather be invested in? Would you rather in something where the traders are of a high quality. The traders are working together. The traders are actually finding ways to exploit markets and create edges, or do you wanna be part of something that’s just, you know, I don’t know, filled with people shouting from the rooftops about, you know, things. And I don’t know, just those kind of horrible environments that I’ve seen online in other places.

Martin Futter [00:21:04]:

And, that’s what I always think when I think about Betfair trading. I think, you know, we’ve created a culture We have carefully created a culture. It has been intentional.

Martin Futter [00:21:15]:

And what’s brilliant is that people have responded to that we’ve got a membership who have, you know, kind of not accepted it. They’ve embraced it. And then we are nothing. We are absolutely, me and Ryan and Adam, we are nothing without the members. so a big thank you to everyone there. And, you know, I’ve kind of gone off topic a bit here. I know you guys don’t mind that, so I do that especially on the podcast. I know that, people like it when when I kind of just took off the cuff. none of this is planned. I never, I never write any of this out, if you can probably tell. I just still feel it’s more accountable and authentic that way. You know, I can’t bs my way through this. I just talk about my experience and my knowledge, and I I think that comes through really well, fortunately. but yeah, I just really want you guys to take on board that Martin Gail and Martin Gail, by the way,

Martin Futter [00:22:11]:

you know, it doesn’t have to be you’re banging it even. It should doubling your money. It could just be, you know, you add a little bit more to your stake every time, and things like that. Anything that involves that kind of thing. Honestly,

Martin Futter [00:22:24]:

like, ask any statistician, right? If you don’t believe me or you don’t trust my views. Go and ask any statistician what they think about that and whether they think it’s a good idea. whether it’s a sound, you know, especially when you’re risking your own money on that and see what they say, because I know what they’ll say. and they’ll tell you it should be avoided at all costs. Anyone peddling that kind of stuff, you know, in a way, because of what I know, it’s quite good. So now that you know it, it’s quite good for you to know this. And what you can do is go, okay. Anyone peddling that kind of method I can literally just not listen to anything they say ever again. I mean, that’s the truth. Right? if you’re listening to someone trying to learn trading, you’re you’re trying to get some tutoring. You’re you’re trying to self develop and do some professional development. a really, really good way to filter out someone you don’t need to listen to at all is when they start peddling some kind of Martin Gales system or increasing stakes every time you lose a bet. I mean, just think about it from a point of view of of common sense. if you were to increase your stakes in general,

Martin Futter [00:23:36]:

would you think it would be a good idea to do that after losing run

Martin Futter [00:23:40]:

or to do it after a good winning run? Just think about it for a second. When you’ve got the bigger bankroll, should you increase your stakes a little bit more because you’ve been winning, Sound sensible to me. What should you be increasing your stakes when you’ve lost money in your bankroll smaller? And it’s actually a bigger percentage of your bankroll, and it’s, you know, it’ll be very risky if that one loses. I think that sums it up. Alright, guys. Hope you’ve enjoyed the podcast. say, not having a go at anyone who’s falling for this trap. If you have fallen for this or if you need any help and support, just email us info at bet fairtradingcommunity.com. Remember, the site, betfairtradingcommunity.com. That’s where we help you. I know there’s a few imitators out there that try and use our name. just use betfairtradingcommunity.com,

Martin Futter [00:24:27]:

you will find us. And same with the info at betfairtradingcommunity.com.

Martin Futter [00:24:31]:

Don’t worry. Alright, guys. Have a great week, and I’ll speak to you soon.

Ryan Carruthers

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