Welcome to another episode of the Betfair Trading Community podcast! In today’s episode, titled “159 Pros and Cons of Football Trading Strategies,” we delve into the exciting world of football trading strategies. We cover a range of topics, from the frustrations and advantages of trading first-half goals to the benefits of laying the draw. Our experienced speaker shares their insights based on their personal trading journey, and invites listeners to provide feedback on their own experiences. We discuss positive feedback received and tease the upcoming episode, which includes heartwarming messages from listeners who found reassurance in our content. We also address a negative comment with a friendly response, highlighting the importance of different perspectives. From high-scoring teams to split stake strategies and the influence of Ricky Gervais, we cover it all. So sit back, relax, and join us as we explore the pros and cons of football trading strategies on the Betfair Trading Community podcast!
Timestamp:
00:00:00 Enjoyed funny feedback about personal podcast content.
00:05:31 Relatable trading principles for all levels.
00:07:58 “Cricket guru with 7 years of evidence”
00:11:23 Assuming Brent is bad, I’m good?
00:14:47 Trolls lack reason, while Louis isn’t one. Afterlife on Netflix is worth watching. Let’s discuss football trading strategies.
00:19:17 Strategy for betting on over 1.5 goals.
00:20:35 Betting on over 1.5 or 2.5 goals can be risky.
00:25:17 Another early goal, but a losing bet.
00:28:20 Goals trade costs money, doesn’t feel right.
00:31:03 £10 loss but could recover half stake. Difficult situation with this strategy. Place bet, don’t look, watch match. Test watertight strategy for more certainty. Upsides and downsides for me.
00:33:49 Late in the match, go for goals.
00:37:43 First half goal stress, frustrating for traders. Positive feedback appreciated, light at the end.
00:39:57 Podcast message hits home, back next week.
Key Topics & Bullets
- Introduction to the episode and key facts
- First-half goals vs. second-half goals
- Speaker’s experience and opinions
- Encouragement for feedback
- Feedback and positive messages from listeners
- Plans to share more positive feedback in the next episode
- Message from listener finding reassurance in content
- Trading strategies for late in the match
- Not recommending laying the draw past 75 minutes
- Suggesting going for another goal instead
- Strategies for the second half
- Prefer going for another goal past 60 minutes
- Likelihood of a goal based on stats and research
- Personal anecdotes and interests of the speaker
- Mention of their growing goatee-style beard
- Love for “The Office” and Ricky Gervais
- Addressing negative comments on the podcast
- Friendly response, suggesting negativity stems from elsewhere
- Strategies for high-scoring teams
- Caution in getting involved unless high strike rate
- Ryan’s split stake strategy for over 1.5 goals
- Importance of testing strategies without betting money
- Receiving a funny comment from listener Lewis
- Discussion on changing personal stories
- Opening up personal topics and welcoming feedback
- Trolls lacking objectivity and doubling down on offensiveness
- Potential good time with someone named Louis
- Recommendation of “Afterlife” as Ricky Gervais’ best work
- Description of show’s humor and simplicity
- Discussion on the pros and cons of football trading strategies
- Impressed by ability to help others
- Questioning the choice to help instead of being selfish
- Importance of relatable and understandable trading concepts
- Working with traders at various levels
- Use of life examples and metaphors for learning
- Appreciation for a skilled cricket trader in the Betfair community
- Their humble nature and consistent success
- Criticism from some without understanding their track record
- A personal connection and continued enjoyment of their help
- Emphasis on personalized assistance for traders
Transcript:
Martin Futter [00:00:00]:
Okay. So, before I start today, I’ve gotta share this because, this did make me chuckle a bit. And, you know, we welcome all feedback atfairtradeandcommunity.com. And it’s funny because I was mentioning last week that actually I don’t, you know, we don’t tend to get negative feedback that much anymore. And, you know, sometimes I do miss it. So I have really, really enjoyed this, comment from Lewis this week. I won’t share your last name, Lewis, if you’re listening, which I’m not sure if you will be or not from your messages. It’s very, you know, it’s very kind of what’s the word almost like, polar opposites, basically, these two messages that he sent me. but lovely, nonetheless. And, like I said, it made me chuckle. I thought I’d share this with everyone, because a, we like feedback, all kinds of feedback, no matter what, and, b, I think it’s actually quite a funny comment. So Lewis has put and he’s he’s private messaged us, so he hasn’t, like, spouted it anywhere. He’s just, he’s taken the time to private message me, this little message, and it says this, why ramble on for 15 minutes justifying why you don’t drive? wasn’t really what I was doing this. if if you listen to the podcast the whole way through, I was actually talking about how you have to change the story of what you’re telling yourself. And actually, all of that stuff around driving for me was something that I changed and it had a massive, massive impact on one area of my life, which I was struggling with. So actually, I think stuff like that is really important to talk about, right, because a lot of guys don’t even talk about that stuff. So, you know, I’d say don’t don’t put someone down for talking about things very personal to them, but, you know, each to their own, whatever.
Martin Futter [00:01:50]:
I like I like the rest of this. it has got nothing to do with Betfair trading. Well, the thing is as well here, so I’ll interject a few times here.
Martin Futter [00:01:59]:
You know, you gotta defend yourself. off, right, even though I do I do enjoy this comment. yes, it doesn’t have anything to do with Betfair trading in terms of specifically talking about Bitfair trading at that moment, but you can relate it to that. And what I do on this podcast, anyone who’s listened for a while, is I’m not as direct as I am in say YouTube videos because I’ve got longer with you. We can actually have a discussion, and I find it really helpful for people put to use metaphors and situations from their everyday life and convert it into betfair trading because then you can kind of understand it So what you’ve got to remember is that a lot of people who listen to my podcast are newer traders, right? We’ve got traders of audibilities, but for training community dotcom. So it’s no good me just talking about trading to someone who’s never traded because
Martin Futter [00:02:47]:
they want to compare it to something in real life. So when I’m talking about value in a trade,
Martin Futter [00:02:52]:
that’s why I’ll often talk about, you know, when you go and buy a stone from a supermarket, it. Okay. Cause value is very simply explained when you start using metaphors in a sense that if you saw some tomatoes, one tomato, you needed a tomato and it was £10,
Martin Futter [00:03:07]:
would you buy it? Well, I guess it depends how much on the need, but I’d imagine not. Right? Imagine 99% of the time, if you see one tomato for £10, you’re not gonna buy it. It’s not good values. It’s horrendously bad value. Okay?
Martin Futter [00:03:21]:
And that’s how easy it is to compare when you’re when you’re getting on some betfair that are horrendous value and you’re still taking them because you feel like that selection wins, you’ll take any price offered, maybe you have to risk £10 to win £1,
Martin Futter [00:03:34]:
is it value?
Martin Futter [00:03:35]:
Well, most of the time, probably not in that situation.
Martin Futter [00:03:38]:
So that’s why I do that. Anyway, Sarah, I’ll carry on with his comment. If I wanted motivational speeches, I’d listen to a mindset coach. Well, Lewis, the thing is this is what I’ll say to that. Right? Hey, you’re welcome to go and listen to set coach, obviously.
Martin Futter [00:03:55]:
We do that all the time. That’s what me, Ryan and Adam do. Like every week, we have a meeting, and we speak about which book we’re reading or what podcasts we’re listening to or what we’ve been reading the week. I don’t tend to read a lot of books. I don’t have a ton of patience. Maybe that’s something I need to work on. So one of the things I to do is I listen to YouTube videos of, you know, people who I respect. And, you know, I often will just read things online, blog posts, things like that. but anyway, you do that. I actually think that’s a really good thing. So, yes, I I agree. Go listen to a mindset coach.
Martin Futter [00:04:27]:
Anything I can help traders with with their mindset will set them up for their future and trading. So anyone who dismisses
Martin Futter [00:04:37]:
how important motivational chat is and mindset changing is in relation to trading. It’s crazy.
Martin Futter [00:04:46]:
because so many people come to me and say, Martin, my biggest problem on Betfair trading was my discipline. My biggest problem was my mindset. And so you have actually helped me because I’ve been able to change my mindset because of the advice you’ve given me, and it’s actually a terminal trader.
Martin Futter [00:05:02]:
It can be that simple for a lot of people. because it’s not that everyone’s got a terrible strategy who’s losing. That’s all we have to remember. There’s a lot of people out there with good strategies who are still losing money. Why are they losing money? Bad my set, bad discipline, not really knowing what to do, not having structure, not having a plan. Anyway, I digress I don’t want to digress too much because this is what I’m in trouble with Lewis for. It’s what Lewis is telling me out for. you actually rarely speak about trading.
Martin Futter [00:05:31]:
Not really true, is it, Lewis? I think I I actually relate everything back to trading, and I try and do it in a way that’s relatable to everybody. Okay. And I think that’s really important because there’s so many traders out there and they get to a certain level. They start talking in jargon and language that other people don’t understand. And suddenly, the other people are alienated from that, and that’s something I will never do. I always wanna work traders at the very base level and move on, you know, move them up through the levels to becoming hopefully a pro trader. And we’ve seen that process happen so many times. That’s why I can talk about it in that way. And that’s why I know that things I say, which, yeah, if I’m not specifically talking about trading in my meta forum using or my life example I’m using, it’s because you you just take those principles and then apply them to trading. And that’s key, right? That’s key in anything when you’re learning, you know, when when you’re learning to do anything, right, if you’re learning a language. So someone will tell you, you know, a story or metaphor about how they learn language. One of the common things I remember is that I was always told you know, associations. So when you’re trying to learn something, associate it with something. So when I was doing my theory test, I’d have things
Martin Futter [00:06:44]:
like, you know, depending on what kind of colors signs were and things like that, kind of have, you know, white is right.
Martin Futter [00:06:52]:
cut things like that in my head where I’m like, right. Okay. y is there. y road signs go there X Y Zed. So, yeah, I do speak a lot about trading. I think pretty much all I ever do is talk about trading. If you’re a member of Bedford Trading Community, you’ll know that. Obviously, if you’ve listened to my YouTube, if you’ve watched my YouTube, you’ll know that. If you’ve listened to all the podcasts, you’ll know that it’s my life. all I ever talk about. It’s all I ever will talk about. So, you know, if you’re not interested in trading,
Martin Futter [00:07:21]:
this is a waste of time.
Martin Futter [00:07:24]:
just ramble about how this is Lewis’ next coming. This is it’s all the same comment, by the way. It’s great. just ramble on about how your dad’s the best trader in the world. I mean, do I ramble on? about how he’s I I don’t I’m not even sure I’ve mentioned that last week, but also,
Martin Futter [00:07:43]:
I don’t say I’ve never said he’s the best trader in the world. What I’ve said is he’s probably the best cricket trader known to Betfair trading, and that’s true. Right? If you speak to people, if you’re a part Betfair trading community, you’ve got
Martin Futter [00:07:58]:
7 years of solid evidence. He is a cricket guru. Right? So whether you like that or not, it’s not my fault, right, whether you don’t like to hear that someone’s good at side. I don’t know what the issue there is. That sounds like something maybe you need to work on. Right? But for me, personally, you know, I’m not bothered. He’s never been someone. And the other thing is if you’re a member of Betfair trading community and even if you’re not and you you you’ve heard about him. He’s never been someone who’s tried to publicize how good he is. He’s never been someone that’s even talked in that manner. So that’s why. And if you ever met him, probably the most humble person you’ll ever meet, and he’s taught me some great things in that respect, and he’s really, you know, he’s he’s just such a good example of how to live your life as a good person. And, you know, he’s never tried to have any glory. He’s never, you know, he he gets nothing from Betfair training community. He doesn’t get any money. He’s never had any financial support. He’s never had any probably stuff that he, you know, he could vase for, but he’s, you know, it’s never about that for So it kinda saddens me when people talk about that, because actually, they’ve got someone here who’s the master of their game, and they are. that’s that’s not a an opinion. That’s a scientific fact. You know, he’s made his living from trading on cricket for donkey shares. He’s been a pro trader much longer than me. And he’s actually shown that over and over and over and over again on the forum. And he’s made member so much money. So, you know, yeah, you can be annoyed about it because you don’t know who he is, and you you haven’t been on the forum or whatever. that’s fine, but I don’t think I ramble on and on about it. I’ve I think that’s a bit that’s a bit overboard. I think this comment in general might be a little bit overboard. Anyway, I still enjoy it, though. and how much you’re here to help us guys. So now the criticism is I’m telling you I’m I’m I want to help you. Okay. So what am I supposed to do then? Say, no. Actually, I don’t I don’t wanna help you, or or just keep that secret and go, I am here to help you. I do wanna help you, but I’m not gonna tell you that. So you’ve kinda gotta guess it. You’ve kinda gotta predict, dummy, don’t we? the thing is, what you gotta remember is there’s so many pro traders out there who, you know, they put up videos x, y, and z, but they’re not actually there to help you on a personal So what we offer is so very different, and I think that’s that’s why
Martin Futter [00:10:18]:
it kind of makes me laugh that I’m being criticized for saying that I want to help you if you’re struggling at trading because, you know, everyone else, I’ve said that to who’s come to me, has said, thank god, someone actually wants to help me on a personal level. You know, I’m sick of following tips. I’m sick of following
Martin Futter [00:10:38]:
someone else. I want to actually learn to do this myself, and I want some help and guidance and to be shown the direction and path to do that. And this is the best bit of of of the, that sort of thing. He he rounds it off with, you’re like a bad version of David Brent.
Martin Futter [00:10:55]:
Alright. Now, what I like particularly like about this comment is the bad version of David Brent. I’m not just David Brent, which when you think about it, right? David David Brent. What is he seen as just basically in Brazil? Doesn’t know what he’s talking about x, y, and zed.
Martin Futter [00:11:10]:
But I’m a bad version. So I’m kind of thinking maybe that’s that he’s actually trying to be nice, Jake, because if I’m a bad version of David Brent, that must mean I’m probably actually do know what I’m talking about, and I’m good at what I do.
Martin Futter [00:11:23]:
Now given that that’s the case, I assume that’s what he’s saying. Now, of course, I know really he isn’t saying that, but but it’s quite interesting because his grammar there actually suggests because David Brent was bad, and he’s saying I’m bad at being bad. That must mean I’m good. Right? See the equation, do the math. So I’ve just it works out to me. Anyway, I love that. David Brent. I mean, I kind of the funny thing is when I grow my beard, it does kind of come and goatee. Like, obviously, after a while, it just all sort of grows out. It’s not as bad. When I was younger, it it just used to grow, a goatee, you know, it was just, for some reason, those areas are where the hair grew the most. And, you know, it looked like I was going for the George Michael look, when actually I was just letting it grow. you know, so I don’t think I wouldn’t even know how to sort of shape into a goatee, you know, but that’s just the way it grows for me. I don’t know why. but, yeah, I love that. You like a bad version of David Brent. I do love the office, and I love Ricky Duveis. So, you know, anything I can do to emulate him. But, no, seriously, Lewis. Thanks for the comment. Thanks for the feedback. I do take it on board. I am actually gonna be diving into a lot of trading talk today, but I thought the first thing I should do is, is point that one up And my response to him, if anyone’s interested, was low. You’re a nice chap, aren’t you? Lots of people love the podcast. So fortunately, you’re in the minority. anyway, obviously, we don’t make you listen to it, and you’re more than welcome to just switch it off. Hope whatever has made you so negative improves for you, and then I sent a love heart you know, because I felt like sometimes when people are negative and and perhaps a little bit trolling on the internet, actually what they’re doing is reaching out and saying, you know, something, you know, because if you’re if you’re upset enough in life to send someone a message, based on a podcast that you chose to listen to and that, you know, I always think there’s obviously more to it than that because I would, you know, I’ve I’ve listened to many podcasts. I’ve listened to many people I don’t agree with. I don’t then private message them and call them a bad version of David Brent. you know, I just don’t see what it achieved. But,
Martin Futter [00:13:35]:
actually, in this case, it achieved a lot because that enjoyed the comment. I’m gonna take that criticism on board. and to be fair to Lewis, and we’re really fair to Lewis here. He did actually come back. My bad. I fast forwarded half the podcast. Come on, Lewis. Seen didn’t even listen to the podcast
Martin Futter [00:13:54]:
really. You just basically listen to little bits here and there. and, yeah, he basically just said, you know, my bad mate, you’re a good bloke, which is a really nice thing to say. So fair play to lose. And actually,
Martin Futter [00:14:08]:
the great thing about Lewis here, one of the qualities, I think, of people, is that within within two comments, within so that was 9:15 eight foot. So within half an hour, this morning within two comments. He said something, you know, and then he’s kind of realized it was a bit over the top and maybe,
Martin Futter [00:14:28]:
you know, he was he was kind of been potentially aggressive towards me for no real reason. I had no real reason to dislike
Martin Futter [00:14:37]:
or me or anything like that. No real reason to want to get to me. And I think he’s realized that and and backtracked on it and fair play because actually a lot of people
Martin Futter [00:14:47]:
you’ll find on the internet, and this is one of biggest problems with trolls, is that they don’t have the reason Louis isn’t actually a troll is the fact that a troll doesn’t have that ability to look at a situation where actually I was in the wrong And a lot of the time, they’ll just keep doubling down on what they’re saying, and just, you know, being horrible for the sake of it. And, you know, I’m sure I’ve ever met Lewis, we’d have a drink, and we’d have a great laugh. And, you know, maybe I could, make him laugh a bit like David Brin. did. Maybe I’ll do the dance. Right? I’ll do the dance. I’m watching afterlife, actually, at the moment, Ricky jaboukie. If you don’t watch afterlife on Netflix, comedy. I actually think it might be the best thing Rick you guys has done, because as good as extras was. extras was probably my favorite thing done. As good as that was. I just think afterlife has a little bit more edge to it. and it’s just I don’t know. It’s just It’s very good. It’s very funny. It’s very simple, very simple concept, very, you know, it’s not flashy. It doesn’t try to be anything like that. Just good old fashioned you know, dark British humor, I guess. but anyway, we’re gonna get in to talk about trading, and I’ve got on for 16 minutes and, you know, I’m sure Lewis will send me another message. Yes. Actually, Liz, I’d love to hear your opinion of this week. Honestly, don’t, don’t hold back. let me know. Okay. So what I wanna talk about here is the pros and cons of football trading strategies
Martin Futter [00:16:11]:
because, obviously, know, I I worked out this week. I was like, how long have I been part of Betfair trading community? So it’s been 7 years, and actually our software come April our football software has been around for 6 years. Can you believe that? I think sometimes because it’s obviously been going from strength to strength and growing You can’t we kind of forget how long it’s been because we cause you’re just I’m always so snowed under with work from it that I’m like, okay, I’m working blah blah blah. then suddenly, he realized, oh, god, 6 years has gone by. That’s insane. It’s funny because when we first did bedfetch training community, some people said we wouldn’t last a month. So
Martin Futter [00:16:49]:
They can stick that in their pipe and smoke it. Those people, those kind of people that I’ve never met. known and have no idea where they are, but, you know, I remember reading a review on the internet, but it’s just actually before I joined the company on it. And,
Martin Futter [00:17:04]:
they were just saying, they said that it wouldn’t work because no one will share with each other. And that how wrong they. I’d love them. I’d love to speak to them. So and show them and say, look, come have a look at our forum. We’ve got we’ve got 7 years. have really good info here about Betfair trading shared by 100100 of traders.
Martin Futter [00:17:24]:
but, yeah, anyway, Pros and cons of football training. So there’s basically 7 main strategies that I see being traded on on training community in football all the time.
Martin Futter [00:17:37]:
I’m gonna go through them 1 by 1, but I’ll I’ll just run through them now. over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 under 2.5,
Martin Futter [00:17:45]:
both teams to score, laying the current score line or going for a late yeah, basically laying the current score, laying the draw, and going for a second half goal, and going for a late goal. But I kind of bunch those in as the same thing. Because if you’re going in at the second half, well, you know,
Martin Futter [00:18:04]:
if you’re going in late in the second half, still second half well. Anyway,
Martin Futter [00:18:09]:
let’s start with over 1.5 goals. So one of the pros I think with over 1.5 goals is you don’t need too many goal is to make a profit. Obviously, you know, even if you’re just doing it as an outright bet, you need 2 goals. You found the bet. I think the is predominantly why a lot of people like this trade, because it’s very easy with this trade. Even if you’re just trading it, not viewing as an outright bet, if you get one goal come in, you know, as long as it’s early enough, fairly early in a match, not super. It doesn’t even need to be super early. You’re gonna be able to take a profit. And, you know,
Martin Futter [00:18:44]:
if you let’s say you’re on over 1.5, if you get a goal before half time,
Martin Futter [00:18:48]:
you’re probably gonna be in profit. probably gonna be able to take a profit half time. Okay.
Martin Futter [00:18:54]:
Now how often do we see 2 goals in the second half? So even at Nil Nil at halftime, your bets are hardly dead in the water. So that that I think is one of the biggest pros. You know, you can go on good runs with that. You can go on good winning percentages. What’s one of the cons? Well, the con is, you know, especially if you’re doing it from the start of the match, over 1.5 goals is quite a short odds.
Martin Futter [00:19:17]:
So a lot of the time, especially if it’s high scoring teams, it’ll be odds around 1.2,1.25. Now you know, a lot of the time, that’s not really a price you’re gonna wanna get involved in all the time, unless you’ve got a really, really good strike rate. So, one of the things I’d do in those situations is I’d wait a bit longer and Ryan’s split stake strategy is an over 1.5 goal strategy, which is really popular on betfair trading community. He gets in at 30 minutes, and I really like that as an entry point because you’re getting such good odds for over 1.5 goals if it’s still nil now. And, you know, if you get the gold before 70 minutes, he tops up at 5 50. And if you get the gold at 70 minutes, you’ll laugh. Before 70 minutes, you’ll laugh. So really, really like that strategy. But that’s sort of 1.5 goals. I think it’s one of those where if you want something where you’re only really one goal, to lead to a profit a lot of the time. And you wanna be able to get in earlier in a match than say, you know, obviously, over a second half though, you’re not entering till halftime.
Martin Futter [00:20:23]:
Right? Whereas with this, you can enter from the start. but, yeah, it just it gives you some options there, but bear in mind, a lot of the time you are taking shorter rods, and that is the downside.
Martin Futter [00:20:35]:
you know, so it’s one of those where a lot a lot of people like to bet on over 1.5 goes. And odds wise, I’m not always sure that it’s the best idea you know, especially if your your strategy isn’t watertight because you can make losses if you get 2 or 3 losing a row gonna hurt and how you’re gonna be able to cope with that. Okay. So let’s go on to over 2.5 goals. over 2.5 goals. Okay. I really like over 2.5 goals. The problem is there’s so many games where you think, yeah, there’s definitely gonna be goals here, and then they’ll end up 2 nil or 11. And how often do we see that? And then we’re like, damn. We were close.
Martin Futter [00:21:21]:
So it’s a difficult one for me because it’s not a market I tend to trade, but I do like it. And I think if you’ve got a good strategy with it, it’s really good. And the reason is, odds are good. So on over 2.5 goals, most of the time,
Martin Futter [00:21:40]:
the odds of over 2.5 goals are gonna be above kind of 1.7,1.8. So you’re getting close to evens, which means you don’t need a crazy strike rate. If you’re hitting
Martin Futter [00:21:52]:
say you’re hitting 66%.
Martin Futter [00:21:54]:
You’re probably gonna make a profit on this market, just outright bets if you’re doing that. Now for trading, it’s good it’s good in respect in the respect that, you know, If you get a goal, obviously, you make a profit. The problem is if you don’t get an early goal of over 2.5 goals, the odds shoot up And by half time, there’s still Nil. You’re gonna be looking at quite a large loss, and then you’ve got a decision. Do I take that loss, or do I hope there’s an early second half goal.
Martin Futter [00:22:27]:
So from a trading perspective, I think it can be a difficult market to trade. Again, if you’ve got a watertight strategy and something you’ve tested and, I mean, this is just true of all strategies, then it’s fine. But if you haven’t, That would be my concern. Okay. Let’s move on to under 2.5 goals.
Martin Futter [00:22:46]:
What I really like with under 2.5 goals is that you really do have a lot of flexibility with your trade. So, you know, let’s say you go for under 2.5 goals that start the match and there’s a goal in the 4th minute.
Martin Futter [00:23:00]:
you’ll be looking at a loss, right, quite a significant loss of your stake. However, you’ll you’ll bet your trade is not dead in the water.
Martin Futter [00:23:11]:
Because think about it, they’ve still gotta get another 2 goals. And you know, how often have you seen a game where there’s a goal in the first 5 minutes? And then it ends up 1 nil or 11 or 2 nil. Right? It doesn’t mean just because there’s an early goal. You’re gonna get a ton of goals. Now the good the thing with under 2.5
Martin Futter [00:23:30]:
goals is that I’m at
Martin Futter [00:23:33]:
testing a strategy at the moment that I’ve added. It’s called _
Martin Futter [00:23:36]:
remake. If you’re on the site, go to the software Go to the members filter section, under galore remake. Now, I’m testing this again at the moment. It was a profitable field a years ago, and then just lost the filter
Martin Futter [00:23:50]:
and never redid it, but loads of people have asked me to recreate it. So I did. I went back over a YouTube video. I watched a really old YouTube video, I done. And, I learned how what filters I’d use and use exact same thing again.
Martin Futter [00:24:04]:
and what I wanna kinda shows if you go to my spreadsheet, so in my signature on the forum
Martin Futter [00:24:11]:
under all my comments, so you can just go to the football thread because I’m I’ve got the, obviously, the opening comment in there, and you can click on the sheet on there. And if you go to under test, you’ll see this in action.
Martin Futter [00:24:22]:
And, basically, you’ll see how many games have early goals. So there’s one from the weekend. Olympiacos
Martin Futter [00:24:29]:
were playing
Martin Futter [00:24:34]:
and the odds were 2.08 for under 2.5 goals. Good odds. Right? I think that’s gonna happen. Full time is 2 nil. Okay? Yeah. We won we won that bet. Great. Let’s have a look at the analysis. The first goal was scored on the 4th minute. During the second goal was the 88th minute, and there wasn’t a third goal. So, you know, that shows that you could have ridden that. So say that early goal comes in the 4th minute. Well, maybe I go, you know what? I’m not gonna take a lot.
Martin Futter [00:25:04]:
on my under 2.5 goals trade, I’m gonna wait, but when I see how it goes, maybe I’ll wait till halftime. because at halftime, you’d be able to take a profit or at least scratch in that situation.
Martin Futter [00:25:17]:
There’s another one here whole Blackburn from last week. So somebody might, you know, know that game. You might have followed that game. Again, under 2.5 goals is 1.76 just above my kind of threshold. The full time score is 2 nil. 1st goal 7th minute. See you So, I mean, oh, gosh. It’s gonna go down the pan. Now they do as well. Right? It’s not like every time it’s an early goal, it’s never another 2 goals, but the point is so often it happens this way. and that one was another winner. So I’m gonna go to this one here, 3rd minute call, The second goal came in the 50th minute. Now, this did lose because there was a goal in the 79th, but you could have grind up before the 50th minute. that’s the point here. Right? So that’s 3 out of 3 where it’s been a goal in the first ten minutes of my testing And there’s one where it’s 3 minutes in Samsung Sport on Boxing Day in Turkey. And that one
Martin Futter [00:26:19]:
lost, but the 3rd goal wasn’t until the 84th minute. So you easily could have taken a profit. So this is my point with the 2.5 goals, you’ve got a lot of scope to get out later on and kind of put a bad situation kinda write it, which is what I really like about as a strategy. What’s the con to under 2.5 goals
Martin Futter [00:26:41]:
I’ll tell you one of the biggest cons, and it’s not necessarily
Martin Futter [00:26:45]:
to do with the mathematics behind trading. It’s just that a lot of people don’t like betting on no goals. As people want goals, right, that a lot of the time when people are trading or betting, they’re watching a game, they wanna watch and see goals, they wanna cheer the goals. They don’t wanna fire a situation where there’s not goals.
Martin Futter [00:27:04]:
However, because of that phenomenon, I feel like there is kind of an angle on unders that is not exploited enough. I don’t think people investigate unders enough. and that’s what I find interesting because basically what it’s saying is that there could be potential value here because people one goal so much. They’re actually inflating the price of under 2.5 goals. So anyway, Let’s move on. Both teams to score. So what’s the pro of this strategy? The pro is you don’t need a ton of gold is to win this trade.
Martin Futter [00:27:43]:
One goal, often we’ll do it. 2 goals. 1 for each side, and you’ve won your trade.
Martin Futter [00:27:49]:
So it’s one of those markets where, you know, you kind of you’re you’re basically saying both things. What’s the cons? Cause I’ll go to the because this isn’t a market I like, and I’m gonna explain why. Because how how can you predict that you know, 2 teams are gonna score it. It’s such a weird thing to try and predict. I get it. I kinda get it if a favorite behind and you really think they’ll equalize,
Martin Futter [00:28:18]:
then I’ll go, yeah, I understand this market.
Martin Futter [00:28:20]:
But let’s say you just come from the start of a match, It’s such a strange thing to to want to happen. Oh, both teams need to score because how often do we see score lines like, you know, too nil? 4 nil. You know, there’s a few 4 Nils on this testing I’m looking at now. And this is an undist test. but there’s loads of 2 Nils and 3 And the thing is, all you need is 2 goals, but because it’s by the same team, you would lose your trade. I wouldn’t feel good about that. I still feel I feel like, that sucks, man. I’ve lost my trade, but I’ve ticked a game where there’s been goals. And yet, I’ve gone for a goals trade, but because it’s a both teams of school and it hasn’t got me any money, it’s cost me money. I just it just doesn’t sit well with me. That’s my con. You know? Take it as you will, by the way, with with this, you know. Like I say, if you’ve got actually that’s watertight that works or that you wanna test and don’t put any money on it when you’re testing, obviously, but you’ve got one that you have tested, then go for it. No reason not to.
Martin Futter [00:29:23]:
Okay. Next one. Laying the current score line. Okay. This is probably the most popular strategy on Betfair trading that I’ve seen with football. And, you know, I think this is probably the most pro probably the most popular.
Martin Futter [00:29:40]:
That’s the word strategy. And the reason is this, that when you’re going for this later current school. All you need is one goal, and you’ve won. Right? And a lot of people like to to kinda just bet that goal. And then when it comes bang, you’ve made your profit. What’s the downside? Well, the downside is very similar to the over one point live. You know? If the goal doesn’t come,
Martin Futter [00:30:04]:
what do you do? You you’re a lot of the time you’re taking short odds depending on when you’re laying the score. If you didn’t really lay on Fairplay or not, but, mate, a lot of the time you are, and a lot of people will back at one point 25,1.31.35. Odds like that where you need a very high strike rate to make money.
Martin Futter [00:30:24]:
And that is the downside of it. for me.
Martin Futter [00:30:28]:
you know, so I always think try and eke out as good odds as you can. You know, wait on if you can. If it if it gets to 60 minutes and you’re getting, you know, 1.5 plus, that might be the time to enter. And you gotta be fairly sure there’s gonna be a goal because if you’re not, then like I say, you need a good on this. So you don’t wanna be left in doubt. And what you’ll find is that the big question you’ll have as it gets late into the game is, and it’s still Nil at 85 minutes.
Martin Futter [00:30:58]:
And you’re staring at Betfair and, well, yeah, I’m looking at a loss. Let’s say you put 20,000.
Martin Futter [00:31:03]:
I’m looking at a £10 loss there, but I could recover half my stake if I just take the loss now. That’s a difficult situation you’ll be putting with this strategy. So I kind of often see it as if you’re going for this, you just place it as a bet and don’t even look at the screen again. Right? you can watch the match. And then if you really do think I have to trade out and take the last, then by all means, but test this to see if see if you’ve got a watertight strategy, you can be more sure. Put that down. Just leave it, and you should make profit over the long term. but they had the downsides and the upsides for me.
Martin Futter [00:31:40]:
Okay. One of the classics, probably the classic strategy, laying the draw what does that mean? It means you just lay the draw on the match odds market. Okay.
Martin Futter [00:31:50]:
You’re not backing either team to win, but you’re saying one of them well.
Martin Futter [00:31:55]:
Now why do people love playing the draw? Well, well, there’s a couple of reasons. The first one is this. If there’s a goal, probably gonna make profit. If the 2 teams are similar odds and a drawers are similar price to the 2 teams as well.
Martin Futter [00:32:09]:
If there’s a goal, the draw price will shoot out and you will make a profit. Okay. So if you’ve got a match where you feel like definitely gonna make gold, all these odds are similar. Bang.
Martin Futter [00:32:19]:
It’s great opportunity. Here’s the downsides, and this is the first one. If there’s an equalizer as you’re trying to trade,
Martin Futter [00:32:29]:
all that can be painful. You know, and I’ve had it before where I’m ready to take my big green. just before Betfair reopens the market or have time to exit the trade, boom, equalizer goes in. So that’s what you’ve gotta think about we’ve laid the draw.
Martin Futter [00:32:46]:
What’s one of the other positives? One of the positives for me is that the odds to lay are often much better than say backing another goal. So let’s say it’s halftime and you wanna back another goal, but the odds are 1.2 Well, I know that the flip side of 1.26.0.
Martin Futter [00:33:05]:
Right? So you’re you’re effectively laying under 0.5 goals at 6.0.
Martin Futter [00:33:16]:
That’s high odds. Right? However, if you’re laying the draw, well, a lot of the time, the draw is gonna be around 2.8 at halftime. So instead of laying at something 6, you’re laying at 2.8.
Martin Futter [00:33:27]:
Now granted when you’re laying at 6, if there’s a goal, you’ve won the bet. So that’s it. obviously, you play the drawers as a goal. You have to try and green up.
Martin Futter [00:33:36]:
So they’re the kind of pros and cons. That’s kind of the up and the downside of it. But, you know, if I get the option, I would choose lay the draw every time because I’d much rather do that than, you know, laying things pilot.
Martin Futter [00:33:49]:
If it’s late in the match, gone let’s say it’s gone past 75 minutes, I will not lay the draw. It’s crazy. Just take the other goal because the odds will be so similar to laying the drawer anyway, that it’s just not worth in case there’s an equalizer lay on. So I always go for lay say from 75 minutes on, I wouldn’t delay the draw. I’ll just go for another goal. Okay. Let’s talk about second half goal. Okay. Another really popular strategy, kind of similar to these goals, strategies that are just going for another goal. what I really like is getting in really late. So, you know, you’re talking 60 minutes plus. see that, you know, all my stats are saying there should be a goal. My pre match research says that the in place stats were pointing towards a goal. I’m watching the game, seeing the action, and I’m going, yes, there’s gonna be a goal here, because you can get better odds later in the second half.
Martin Futter [00:34:43]:
That’s the plus of the strategy. The downside is you don’t have a ton of time to win your trade. So you know, one of my strategies is getting in at 85 minutes. Now I know that
Martin Futter [00:34:56]:
there’s probably gonna be another 1 or 2 chances in you know, big chances in that match. I know there’s a lot of late goals, but it’s not easy to do this It’s not always easy to go for those late goals and then, you know, wait for them to come in when you know you haven’t got long for that to happen. And if it doesn’t, you kind of like, oh, why did I bother? It was so late in the game. But you kind of have to look beyond that and remember the big pitch I make in profit long term. If yes, keep going. If no, don’t keep going.
Martin Futter [00:35:29]:
simple as that. Right?
Martin Futter [00:35:32]:
So that’s kind of the downside of that. So I’ve kinda given you a brief overview of the kind of 7 most popular football betting strategies, but Mark whatever you wanna call it. What what are the things you like to trade, guys? You know, think about that and think, what suits you? You know, certain markets suit me a lot more than others. There’s a reason I don’t I don’t do both teams to school. You know, I have a real There’s a reason I don’t tend to do over 2.5 goals. Again, I’ve got an aversion to it. The one I haven’t really spoken about is first half goal. And the reason is that I’ve not done a lot of first half goals since the euros because
Martin Futter [00:36:16]:
just with the whole COVID thing, first half goal last year was a was a minefield. so I I do need to get back into the first half
Martin Futter [00:36:25]:
But I’ll I’ll quickly go over what it makes. Obviously, I have traded a lot before.
Martin Futter [00:36:31]:
The advantage of 1st half gold is there’s often better odds than the 2nd half goal because less goals are scored in the first half. So we find teams that do score in the first half.
Martin Futter [00:36:41]:
You know, a lot of the time, you can get odds. I mean, let’s say you wait till 15 minutes, it’s Nil Nil. A lot of the time, you’re getting odds well above 1.5. And if you get that goal, you know, you don’t need a crazy high strategy. And we’ve seen with Frode strategy. And we’ve seen with some of these first half goals strategies on the filter, on the member’s filters that shared with everyone. They’re striking around that 65%
Martin Futter [00:37:05]:
rate. which would make a profit. So it’s here’s one of those markets that’s worth exploring. What’s the downside?
Martin Futter [00:37:13]:
I’ll tell you the biggest downside of first half going, a thing that always frustrates me if I’m watching a game. When it gets to 40 minutes, And you can just tell that neither the team is trying to score before halftime.
Martin Futter [00:37:25]:
Now that’s fine. Right? If you’re watching every game, maybe you can get out in that situation.
Martin Futter [00:37:29]:
But you’ll find that your trade has gone so far that it’s financially. It’s not even really worth taking the loss at that point. you might as well ride it out because there are some goals in the 45th minute, even in games like that, but
Martin Futter [00:37:41]:
it can be frustrating.
Martin Futter [00:37:43]:
I always feel like with first half goal, It’s gonna stress you out if you watch it again once you’ve placed your trade because there’s not the same urgency. in the first half as there is in the second half. And I think that can be a really frustrating thing for traders. Anyway, guys, so I’ve gone through 8 now. and hopefully that’s helped you. Hopefully, that will help you kind of sit in the right track, work out what works for you. You know, these are pennies in mind. You might have a totally different It’s based on a lot of experience of trading these markets. So it’s not like I’ve just decided to have an opinion for the sake of it. this is just my pure experience of trading on these markets. Alright, guys. So you’ve enjoyed the podcast this week. you know, get back keep getting in touch on it. I love all the positive feedback Well, I know we focused on some negative ones that were quite funny today, but, you know, it’s it’s been great. And maybe I should actually share some of these more positive ones. I think I’m gonna do that next do a positive one. because, I’ve had a few messages this week, and, I’m just really glad. I mean, you know, one guy was saying it’s literally the turn on for me this week because you’ve you’ve hit on something. I’ve realized I’m not the only one who’s gone through this, and that actually there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Martin Futter [00:38:55]:
And I was like, wow. You know, if I can help people to that extent, that’s powerful. That’s powerful stuff. You know, and if you ever wonder, why does he do this? Why does he help other people? Why isn’t he selfish? Like, we’re taught everyone is, which isn’t really true, is that, you know, I think in general as society, we’re actually pretty nice people. I mean, we might not feel like it because we might have thoughts in our head sometimes aren’t eyes. But actually, the way we treat each other, the fact we we do go and walk out on the streets and, you know, it’s civil. Everything is civil. You see people, you know, generally, you know, and us, you know, it’s not like there’s just a bunch of meat heads walk around the street punching everyone they see, is it? I mean, society is pretty civil. I think we’re all pretty nice in general. And, you know, there’s nothing wrong with helping people. It’s not,
Martin Futter [00:39:45]:
that Remember that the phrase I hate is nice guys finish last because it’s just not true. And Betfair trading community has shown us for 7 years now. So if you ever want more proof than that,
Martin Futter [00:39:57]:
that really does kind of hit home that mess message. Alright, guys. Have a great week, and I’ll be back again next week when I will podcast.
