Today we are going to teach you how to turn a losing Betfair trading strategy into a winning one.
It’s a very easy thing to do and it’s something that you’ll be able to do yourself!
Everything I’m about to tell you is statistical, mathematical fact.
It’s not my opinion, this process works.
The best news? All you need is a Losing Betfair Strategy to get started!
Step 1: Create a Bad Strategy!
So the first thing you’re going to want is a losing Betfair trading strategy, obviously.
Now, a lot of you out there will probably be sitting there thinking, well, that’s music to my ears! I have a losing strategy. It turns out I’m not very good at Betfair trading.
(How much will this back of Luton to win the Premier League earn me?)
Step 2: I put my thing down, flip it and reverse it!
But how do I turn my losing strategy into a winning one?
You reverse or flip the strategy!
Let me explain…
If your strategy is for laying, back the selection instead.
If your strategy is for backing, lay the selection instead.
Why would this work?
If you’re losing money, hand over fist on a strategy, then surely if you do the opposite, it will make money. That’s pretty basic maths!
One quick caveat before we get into some examples…
- You need to have a strategy that is losing significant money
So let’s say I’ve got a strategy.
I’m testing and I’m 1000 results in, I’ve been using £10 stakes for testing and I’m down £100. I’ve lost 10 points in 1000 trades.
That’s probably not going to be bad enough to flip into a profitable strategy.
Because you’re not actually losing that much money per bet.
£100/1000 bets = 10p lost per £10 invested/ 1% of stake lost per bet.
Once you take commission into account you are unlikely to be profitable when flipping the strategy.
However:
Let’s use the same example of 800 selections but this time you are -£500
You can pretty safely say if you flip that strategy, it is clearly a very unprofitable strategy.
So what are the exact steps to making it profitable?
Let’s go through a real life example here.
There’s a strategy I’ve been testing, it’s called Super lay the draw.
(Kind of ironic because it’s actually really bad at laying the draw!)
I’ve been testing it since May.
Nearly a years data so far and as you can see it’s -£923 to £10 stakes.
It had 832 selections.
If we reverse it, we should make money.
Ok simple enough, we can now just back the draw!
(An example of how to back the draw on the Betfair exchange)
Step 3: Can I make it even worse?
Now, what you want to do is go to the Betfair Trading Community software filters and look at your Betfair trading strategy.
Ask yourself, is there anything here that I could change to make the loss even higher?
That sounds weird, right?
But remember we’re going to flip this strategy.
So we want it to be as bad as it can be!
Originally this strategy had a league filter, removing poorly performing leagues.
As you can see in the picture below.
(Image taken from Betfair Trading Community football software)
The leagues that don’t work are exactly what we want now, I added those leagues back into the strategy.
I’ve tested this tweak for exactly a month today, 192 selections.
The results have been awful, which is what we want!
Laying the draw was -£272 for £10 of stakes.
27 points down in a month.
Much worse on average per month than the original strategy.
(What more could we ask for?!)
You can also look at the odds ranges and you might notice all the draws between 1.01 and 3.5 are actually making money (as is the case with the one being tested).
(+£45 from odds 1.01-3.50 is not what we want!)
Well, if that odds range makes money, when you reverse the Betfair trading strategy, you don’t want to be backing at those prices!
So you can remove that section of it.
However:
Only ever kind of tweak your leagues and your odds when there’s a clear pattern!
Don’t just do it because a couple of results didn’t go your way.
For example, say you had five bets in Spain and you lost £10 and are 1pt down, that’s not clear enough, you should not remove those leagues.
You want a significant amount of data trending in the wrong direction to make that kind of conclusion.
Step 4: Time to bet
We now have a viable strategy where we are going to do the opposite of what was originally intended.
Time to turn this loser into a winner!
I think this strategy is now at the point where you could go for small stakes ‘Backing the Draw’.
So I recommend very small stakes to start off with, after a while of success you can raise them.
(There is no shame in starting live trading with small stakes as above)
On this Betfair trading strategy I still want to get towards 2000 results before I draw any definitive conclusions.
Now, you might think 2000 results is too much. I’ve tried it out, it just works.
However, it’s fine if you want to go live with less results, that’s entirely up to you.
That’s really all there is to it.
You have just turned a losing strategy into a winner!
Step 5: Do it again!
What next?
Create another strategy!
If it does well, then great!
If it does poorly, then you may be able to flip another one.
Those are the steps needed to turn a losing Betfair strategy into a winner.
And I’ve just told you the process!
In short…
Flip it, test it and then when you are ready start investing in it.
Good luck with trying it out and have a great week!
If you have enjoyed reading this then you will love our post which will teach you to become a Betfair Super Trader – Read that here.
