The new season is about to start, who’s going to be battling relegation from the premier league this season?
I’ll start by saying I don’t actually know who is going to go down, but what I am aiming for here is to use stats and logic to find some trades that I think look solid.
These long term markets offer so much opportunity and gold, I think every trader should look at them. Yes you have to wait to get paid out but the season ends in May, so you know treat the family to a week away or well whatever you wanna spend your winnings on.
I’m not offering you these as tips either, I am not a tipster I am explaining my process here and sharing my thoughts, what you choose to do with them is up to you. The markets I tend to operate most in throughout the longer term trades are: Premier League winner, relegation & Championship promotion (Sunderland are worth a look in that one by the way!).
4 Stages
Right, I break the season into 4 stages for these longer term trades which are.
- First 10 games
- Next 10 games
- Last set of 10 games
- Last 8 games
Why you might ask?
It allows me to give the trades enough time to work, it allows me to take a longer than one or two game look as well. Quick example of this is Forrest, in their first ten games play each of the newly promoted teams at home in the first ten games! That’s at least 7 points in my view!
First thing I like to do is look at the odds that we can get on Betfair.
I then take those and turn them into ‘implied probability’
That’s what that means, in case you didn’t know.
| Team | BF Odds | Implied Probability % |
| Luton | 1.4 | 71.4% |
| Sheffield United | 1.8 | 55.6% |
| Burnley | 4.4 | 22.7% |
| Bournemouth | 3.7 | 27% |
| N Forrest | 3.8 | 26.3% |
| Everton | 4.3 | 23.3% |
| Wolves | 4.4 | 22.7% |
I picked the top 7 on the betting odds because I think Palace and Fulham are pretty sturdy safe teams that won’t battle for relegation.
The next step for me is to look at that and ask myself this…
‘Which of those teams do I think have a higher chance of having a relegation battle than the odds suggest?’
Remember I don’t actually need the team to go down, some of these teams I don’t actually want to go down, except Everton ;)! Some reading this will also say that this isn’t the correct way – well it works for me and has done for a long time.
Here’s also a good video Martin did on the Top 3 Set And Forget Football Strategies.
There’s a few that really stick out to me….
- Bournemouth
- N Forrest
- Everton
- Wolves
On a first glance I personally think they all should have a higher realistic chance of having a relegation battle, I think Luton will get battered BUT their odds offer no value and I am looking at value.
I want to find teams who I think will be in a relegation battle BUT they have good odds, odds that can reduce all these have that for me.
Then I look at the teams in more detail.
I want to see the first ten games, because if after ten games they are in a relegation fight their price will have dropped and I can get out.
Here I rule Forrest out straight away, in my view their first ten aren’t too bad. They have home games against all the newly promoted sides – This doesn’t mean I will not back them later in the season, but not in this first stage.
What you can see here is that Bournemouth have a bloody hard start to the season as do Wolves.
What then?
I want to look at whether I think they’ll win those games? What keeps you in the premier league is wins but getting them requires goals.
Wolves scored the least goals of any team last season, closely followed by Everton with 34.
They’ve lost a lot of players as well and seem to have nobody coming in to replace them of the same level. Wolves for me look solid to be struggling this season and by match 11 they’ll have played:
- Man U
- Brighton
- Man City
- Liverpool
- Newcastle
That looks hard to me, I will be backing them.
If you liked this? Then you should read this post. It’s where I turn you into a Betfair Super Trader.
I nearly put Everton as well because that team doesn’t have goals in it. BUT I am leaving them alone for the time being, I don’t think they are going to be good in fact they won’t score many at all and they need to stop betting on Calvert-Lewin being fit (quality player but injury record is shocking). I think Dyche will have them not conceding many. Although side note he has come out and said they’ve missed out on their transfer targets!
Which leaves me with Bournemouth, who have a pretty disgusting start. They’ve bought a few players in, but they are still looking like a team that will have a tough battle on their hands.
- Bournemouth – 3.7
- Wolves – 4.4
That’s my thought process on looking at this market and how I got to this decision, Everton have really played on my mind. Mainly because they’ve been close to dropping a couple of seasons now, how much longer can they hold out?
BUT my emotions get the better of me with them, they are a rival which is why I am not going to back them for the drop yet. Even though in a purely logical way of looking at this they have a fight on their hands. But when is trading ever this logical?
