Betfair Trading Community horse racing stats email user guide:
This is a NEW Horse Racing stats email we send to members each day that picks out some trends from the day’s horse races.
You can sign up to it here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/products/
This then gives you the tools you need as a Horse Racing trader to decide how you want to use those stats highlights.
So I’m gonna talk a little bit about how you can do that and also give you an example.
First things first, you may look at the email and think:
‘What the hell is a beaten fav, dobbed or LTO?’
Don’t worry we have a terms glossary on the email, which explains all of the terms used.
Today we will use a ‘Dobbing’ example:
‘Dobbing’ – means that a horse’s price halved in-running.
Dobbing comes from the phrase ‘Double or Bust’ whereby you back a horse at the off and cashout if the price halves.
Say you bet £10, if it reaches the target price you make £10 profit (£20 returned), if not you lose £10.
It’s a very popular horse racing strategy because it is so simple to do.
Now, let’s find an example of something we would actually want to trade.
OK, so let’s look at the Lingfield 14:02, there is a horse here called Aramis Grey and this horse stands out to me for a potential ‘dobbing’ trade.
Here is why:
- It has ‘dobbed’ in seven of its last 10 runs (70%), well we only need a 50% strike rate to break even so 70% is great!
- It was a beaten favourite last time out (beaten favourites often run well in their next run)
- It’s also won over the course and distance, so it performs well at this course and at this race length.
- It’s moved down in class since last time out, therefore, in theory it is now racing against easier opposition.
Here we have four strong reasons to think that this horse will run well! I like the look of this trade.
Time to Trade!
So what we’re going to do here, is we would back Aramis Grey for £10 then lay the horse for £20 at the target odds.
To make £10 on all horses if the price goes that low in-running.
OK, so the pre race Betfair starting price odds were 9.7 for this horse. (I got these odds from Timeform it’s free to use and very good for BSP odds).
Aramis Grey was 9.7 to back, to the nearest Betfair exchange odds that equates to 9.6.
So we BACK for £10 at odds of 9.60.
Now the LAY price we need to reach is 4.8.
So we LAY for £20 at odds of 4.80.
Now as you can see we would make a £10 profit on all outcomes.
So, if this horse goes into 4.8 during the race, we will make £10 profit no matter what.
Using the Betfair Trading Community Horse Racing Software racecard we can see how low the horse went in running.
Aramis Grey came second, only beaten by one length.
So it ran very well and reached 4.8 in running!
This horse hit the perfect price, it ‘dobbed’ and we made £10 profit as a result.
We backed a horse, it didn’t win and we made money, don’t you just love Betfair trading?!
Reviewing the Trade
In review, we placed a trade based on the horse racing daily email stats, because there were clear indicators that this horse would ‘dob’ and we made a profit.
However, these horse racing email stats highlights are NOT tips.
These highlights are there to give you ideas on how you might trade the horses that day. Betfair Trading Community has always been about giving you the tools to be a successful trader and this daily email is doing just that!
OK, so good luck with it.
If you have any questions or if you need any help with it, as ever, just get in touch.
