The Ultimate Over 2.5 Goals Betfair Strategy
Let me start by saying that the ultimate strategy is one you build yourself. So this won’t be me giving you a strategy – that teaches you nothing.
This will be me empowering you to build your own strategy. There’s a huge difference there, because I want you to have the skills to be profitable following YOUR strategy, not trading like me.
I want you to trade like you, therefore if you stick around you’ll be so much closer to building an over 2.5 goals strategy that can be profitable for you.
Listen.
It’s not your fault that you haven’t been able to build a strategy for this market. You’ve not got loads of time to research the games and when you go to look at the games on Betfair you are met with this screen…
How the hell are you supposed to go through all these games?
…As well as knowing whether the leagues are any good or not?
…Or knowing anything about the teams?
I don’t care what anybody says, the Betfair Exchange website is hard to navigate. It looks complicated and I understand why so many are defeated before they start and feel like that have no idea what the best opportunities are.
Well, I will change this for you.
The first thing I am going to show you here is some stats that you might want to look at when building your strategy, THEN I am going to show you how to narrow the games down.
How do you go about building your own over 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy?
This is where stats come in.
Stats allow you to look at the games with the BEST chance of giving you a profitable trade, allowing you to take the games for that day and create a shortlist.
Here I will go into some of the stats that I think you might want to think about and why they are important.
I am not saying these are the ones you HAVE to have, I am just exploring the stats for you and how you might consider them important, hopefully giving you the information to put together your own strategy using the search methods I have given you.
- Over 2.5
- H2H scores
- Time of goals
- 1st Score / 1st Conceded
- BF Price
- XG / Ratings of goals
You might now be a bit excited, thinking “Let’s look at how to find some games!” and have googled “football stats” and come across a site like this one, which looks like this:
But you grab your pen and paper and start looking for the games that you think will be good to trade the over 2.5 goals market.
For the sake of this experiment lets say we want to know 3 things in order to narrow the potential trades down:
- Over 2.5 goals % over 70%
- 0.5 First Half 60% plus
- Over 2.5 goals price Betfair 1.70 or above.
WARNING!! This isn’t me saying that those are the figures that will always work. I am just saying that this will roughly give some good games to go and investigate. You will need to work out the figures you want to make your strategy work (I have a system for that, called Super Trader, which you can get for free here>> SUPER TRADER )
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I will show you the FREE way of getting all of this first and I will also time it so you can see how long it takes. I will then show you the FASTEST way of getting this information.
If you want to do it this way I recommend you get Notion, it’s free and is a notetaking tool that will be really good for this exercise. You can have a page and then everyday open that up press / then new page within that page call it the days date and then that can be your trades for that day. It works on all devices too! Which is excellent if you are trading on the go!
I will start by looking at the stats, the site I used to use is https://footystats.org/stats/over25-goals
You can see a video of me finding the selections using this site here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmv7rKhNdIM&t=657s
You’ve now got a list of games that meet this criteria for the day. Next we need to go to Betfair to check the prices.
Now you have that, you need to get the prices on Betfair. For that we need to head on over to https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football-betting-1
Click “Today”. This will bring you all the matches for, well, today! Then where it says “Match Odds”, click that and select “Over/Under 2.5 Goals”.
This gives you all the Betfair prices for today on the over 2.5 goals.
Scroll until you find a game that has over 2.5 goals price of 1.70 or above.
If there are any games that meet all the criteria you have now found the trade. When I ran through this, it didn’t. It took me 12 minutes to search this (12 minutes wasted, you could say!).
How can we speed this up?
A small plug for my stats software here, but using our football software you can cut this 12 mins of searching down to less than 2 mins.
You can also save your search criteria so you can get those every day in less than 1 min.
I’ve recorded a video of me showing how long it takes to do this FREE and then using the Betfair Trading Community Stats > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmv7rKhNdIM
Of course, there is a cost to this, which you can learn about here: https://btc.thrivecart.com/community-and-sports/
You can also search for 5 days ahead in the software which allows you to bulk your research twice a week.
What Next with your Over 2.5 goals Betfair strategy?
You will want to build your own strategy. The best way to do this I have found from studying & asking profitable traders is to use the “What has to happen?” question.
Grab a pen and paper and ask yourself “What has to happen for my trade to be profitable?”
List out all the things YOU think have to happen.
Then go ahead and research them, crossing games off your list that don’t fit!
