How can I crack the Correct Score Market?
Everyone believes that the old correct score trading strategies are the gold standard of Betfair Trading.
But what if there’s a new approach that no one’s talking about?
Now, let’s be honest when it comes to football trading, the traditional correct score trading models, those correct score trading strategies have been effective for years.
A lot of the semi-pro and pro traders who use them are probably Super Traders.
(If you want to become a Super Trader click here and I’ll give you my framework for free)
But being totally honest, I’ve never personally benefited from a correct score trading strategy. I just always stuck to Over/Under 1.5 or 2.5 goals.
But is that all about to change?
There’s a new way to trade the correct score market and It’s really exciting.
It’s a clearer, easier, faster and maybe, just maybe, a more dependable one.
I’m introducing a completely revamped approach to correct score trading that could redefine how we trade on the Betfair Exchange!
Recently a member of Betfair Trading Community asked a question in the forum about using the BTC stats software and how to trade the correct score market.
So, I played around with the software to see what I came across and what I could build for them, and it hit me like a punch in the face!
I sat up and took notice.
You see, while the traditional methods, the old school ones have their merits. They also have those hidden pitfalls.
Traders are left guessing, ‘When should I enter the trade?’, ‘When should I exit the trade?’.
So here it is drum roll please!
The Correct Score trading strategy
A method that’s adaptive and dynamic and tailored to the trader of 2024 who doesn’t have loads of time because we have lives to live!
Why am I sharing this with you and not putting it into a secret vault?
I know some of you are going to pick this apart, you’re gonna make it better and you’re gonna run with it, which is what the Betfair Trading Community is all about.
We are a community of Betfair traders!
So how can we implement this strategy?
Using the Betfair Trading Community software I added the strategy criteria.
I put the full time scoreline 0-0 and added 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 (as pictured) for a combined score of how often the two teams have these scorelines in a percentage.
What a lot of people did with the old correct score strategies, is that they would look at those scorelines, and they would dutch those scores (covering all four outcomes) with the idea being that they would trade out for a profit after a goal.
So just selections that come up, for example, you can see that most of the figures are actually quite low (see Criteria 1 in the picture below).
However, as you can see Chemie Leipzig v Erfurt has 69% 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 full-time results.
That’s very high.
We have a potential match for this correct score strategy!
So what I decided to do was add another criteria, the half time score.
Ideally we want to fully exit the correct score trade at half-time if we don’t do it earlier..
So, we use the same criteria but for the half time score market instead (pictured).
As you can see this match has had a half-time scoreline of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1, 94% of the time.
Surely there must be a very good chance of one of those scores at half-time!
Time To Place The Bets
So going back to the correct score market I will now dutch those scorelines.
Equal Stakes (£12.50) as pictured:
Two final stats I added were Over 1.5 Goals % and Over 2.5 Goals %. I wanted to check these were low and they were – 56% and 25% respectively.
Why did I do this?
Betfair Traders struggle to know when to exit the market, so, with the knowledge this is unlikely to be a high scoring match, we can possibly stay in the trade a little longer after a goal if we decide to.
So the plan is to trade out at half-time at the latest, hopefully with a 0-0 or 1-0, 0-1 scoreline.
One other thing we can do is check the inplay stats, you can do that for free on most in-play football matches here on Bet365.com (pictured)
So with this trade we are combining the power of the Betfair Trading Community Football Software and in-play stats to find a potentially good correct score trade.
Time to See What Happens in the Match!
It was 0-0 half way through the first half so we removed just over 50% of our liability.
A goal was scored on 30 mins and the half ended 1-0, a scoreline we fully expected.
At half time we greened up for a small profit, we would have preferred 0-0 for a big profit but we should never complain about an easy green!
As you can see we make a profit now no matter the score!
So, this is now a much easier and clearer way to trade because we have used the pre-match stats to our advantage.
This is just one example of the type of strategy you can create using the Betfair Trading Community stats software.
I think that we’re on the brink of a trading revolution.
So I want to invite you now to join me and embrace this change, and let’s redefine Betfair Trading together!
