Under 3.5 Goals Trading Strategy

By Marty •  Updated: 02/15/24 •  7 min read

Here is a simple and easy to follow Under 3.5 Goals strategy! 

The goal of this blog post is to make you a better Betfair trader by showing you an under 3.5 goals strategy.

Our aim as Betfair Trading Community is to take the 95% of losing traders and turn them into winning traders. That’s a goal that we are well on the way to achieving! 

let's win at Betfair trading under 3.5 goals
Let’s Do This!

Why Would You Want To Use This Strategy?

Well, the first question is… How much profit is your current Betfair trading strategy making?

The aim of this strategy is to bring in £10 a day initially, but that can scale that up if you are successful with it.

Over time you could target making £100 a day on this under 3.5 goals strategy!

Wouldn’t that be nice!

counting the profits from under 3.5 goals
Fancy making some profit on Betfair?

So let me ask you, what would that be worth to you in your life and in your sports trading?

I’ve got some good news, you need zero knowledge of football to be able to use this strategy, which is amazing isn’t it!

It makes it really, anyone can do it, which is one of the reasons why I wanted to share it with you.

The best part, I am about to give you this strategy for FREE!

So how do we use this?

Well, first thing we need to know the Betfair market that we are going to trade on, the Under 3.5 Goals market. Which is also know as the ‘Over/Under 3.5 goals market’ on the Betfair exchange.

example of an over or under 3.5 goals market
This is the market you want to bet on

We are laying (betting against) Over 3.5 Goals, so what we are saying to Betfair is that we think this game will not have four goals in it, OK?

We are planning to enter a trade after 10 minutes has been played in the selected football match. 

I recommend setting a reminder on your phone for the games that you’re thinking of using that day and then set the timer.

phone timer
Get that alert ready!

So for example, if the match kicks off at 3pm, have an alert that goes off at 3.10pm and ‘boom’ the alarm will make sure you don’t miss it!

I use Bet365 for the match times, they show the time played to a very good accuracy. 

Bet 365 match tracking
Bet 365 tracks the match time to the second!

Here is the criteria that needs to be matched for us to consider entering a trade.

We are looking for:

Bet 365 in play statistics
Here is an example of where to find shots on target, in this example there have been 3 shots on target.

These two things all indicate a quiet match, not much goalmouth action has taken place, this is exactly what we want.

Remember we want under 3.5 goals, so the less chance of a goal the better!

It’s also very important to check the two teams’ recent home and away games. 

As you will know if you have followed Betfair Trading Community for a while we prefer to look at home form for the home team and away form for the away team. 

That data will be much more relevant to the specific match.

You can check form on many sites but really if you want to upgrade your Betfair Trading to the Pro level then you should be using the Betfair Trading Community football stats software. More info here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/

Betfair Trading Community football software
Using sophisticated statistics software like this will give you the best chance of success on Betfair

That way you can save your strategy and get your selections for the day instantly at the click of a button each day! 

So don’t be afraid to spend some money and invest in yourself.

But don’t worry I’m giving you this really good strategy for FREE!

Time to Bet!

Step 1:

How to lay under 3.5 goals
Click this button to place a lay bet

Start with low stakes as you are new to this, the minimum bet is £1 on Betfair and there is no shame in starting that low! 

Staking for laying under 3.5 goals
The amount circled here is your bet stake £1 (your risk is next to it £2.80 in this case)

Remember when you get good at Betfair trading you can scale your stakes up.

We lay between the odds range of 3.5-4.8, DO NOT enter a trade if the lay price is not within that scale. 

Step 2:

That’s it, that’s the trade in a nutshell!

Why Does It Work?

I’ve tried this under 3.5 goals (Lay Over 3.5 Goals) strategy a lot and it works on numerous levels.

We know as football traders that a lot of the time goals are scored after 20 minutes, especially if we’ve done all the research on these games.

0-0 scoreline
Wonder if the coaches told these teams to ‘keep it tight’?

And this is statistically proven because these are often games where teams like to feel their way into a match. Think for example of how many football pundits you have heard say:

‘Their strategy should be to keep it tight for 15 minutes.’

‘The team must not concede in the first few minutes of the second half.’

‘They need to stay solid and then start to grow into the game.’

But you are going to learn that some teams really do try to score quickly, and you will not enter trades on matches involving those teams, think Liverpool and Man city etc.

Would you really want to be backing under 3.5 goals against Man City?

Back To The Trade

We have a profit, now yes your profit will be small but that is to be expected at low stakes.

The point is those profits can really add up over time, so you can rinse and repeat this all day.

This under 3.5 goals strategy can work on lots of different football matches.

So you can just keep on going and going, which can build up to that £10 profit a day target.

Now, if a goal goes in, don’t panic, what will happen is the market will shoot up.

It’ll take a minute or two and then it will calm down, at that point you will just take a loss and move on.

We have a cushion because we are using the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market. One goal does not mean we lose our whole stake, far from it! 

Over and under 3.5 goals rules
Remember four goals have to be scored for us to lose our full stake. We take a loss before that can happen if a goal goes in early.

Which is why we can wait a minute or two because we have that protection, which is why this works best on the under 3.5 goals market. 

This is why I don’t use this on the Under 2.5 goals market because the loss would be so much bigger!

Why should you use it?

Well, this works really, really well.

If you don’t have lots of time to trade, then this is the Betfair trading strategy for you!

This strategy works so well if you don’t have time to research

This gives you a really easy way to trade under 3.5 goals, which is another reason why you should use it if you want to make money on Betfair.

If you want a simple, easy to follow system, this is for you.

So Let’s Sum Up…

You are laying over 3.5 goals (or backing under 3.5 goals), entering at 10 minutes.

You want there to be no goals scored and no shots on target.

And then you’re going in for small stakes laying over 3.5 goals (or backing under 3.5 goals).

This is a really good example of how to trade on the Betfair exchange. 

You have the ability now to potentially make money on Betfair consistently.

How does that feel?

And I’m feeling Good!


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