Today, I’m going to explain to you the main thing that will make you money from the Betfair Exchange using profitable Betfair trading strategies.
Betting, trading and any form of gambling have two key elements…
Maths and probability!
These two cornerstones MUST be in your favour to win long term.
Fortunately, you don’t have to be a master of either to understand how to make money at trading or betting.
I will explain in very simple terms how to do it right now!
Toss A Coin To Your Witcher
So for this analogy, I am going to use the classic coin flip scenario because I imagine most of you will have flipped a coin at some point in your life.
Why do people flip coins?
To make decisions because the chance of the two outcomes ‘heads’ or ‘tails’ is 50/50.
There is a 50% chance of each outcome happening, so it is a fair and neutral way to make the decision.
So how does this relate to betting and Betfair trading?
In the betting terms world 50% represented in odds form is odds of ‘Evens’ with bookmakers or ‘2.0’ on Betfair.
Now, here’s where the value part, the maths and probability really kick in.
If I said to you, we’re gonna toss a coin 100 times and you are going to place a £10 bet on the same outcome (heads) every single time.
If heads wins, I will pay you £20 profit and return your £10 stake, for a total return of £30.
So you will make a £20 profit every time that happens.
However, if it’s tails, I’m going to take that £10 bet you made and you will lose that £10 ok?
So, in short a profit of £20 if it’s heads and a loss of £10 if it’s tails.
Would you take that bet? Would you risk the 100 coin tosses in this scenario?
You should! Why? It’s of huge value for you, so you will make a profit nearly every time.
Show Me The Money!
So, we know that ‘heads’ happens 50% of the time, but you are being offered percentage odds of 33.33% (2/1 with bookmakers or 3.0 on Betfair).
In theory the person offering you this bet only believes ‘heads’ will land 1/3rd of the time, however, we know that this is not true as the true percentage odds are 50%.
Don’t worry if you don’t understand that bit, I’m going to demonstrate exactly how this works.
If we were to toss a coin 100 times, winning 50% of the time on average, you should win 50 coin tosses.
However, you would lose 50% of the time losing 50 coin tosses.
Remember we make £20 for a win and -£10 for a loss.
The Equation
50% wins = 50 x £20 profit = £1000
50% losses = 50 x £10 loss = -£500
£1000-£500 = £500 Profit
In this scenario, we work out our profit by taking £1000 win and taking away the £500 loss and we are left with a £500 profit.
So if anyone ever gives you that kind of edge, even on a £10 bet, you would stand to make a £500 profit, on average (nothing is guaranteed of course but on average this is true).
And the reason is very simple, the odds are too big. The 2 to 1 odds you are being offered are a gift from the gods, take them!
They should be offering you odds of Evens in fractional odds or 2.0 in decimal odds (but don’t tell them that!)
In layman terms, that is how you make money at betting and trading, you take advantage of odds that are bigger than they should be.
How do I know whether the odds are wrong or not?
Firstly, I’m going to show you a probability chart because a lot of people do not know what the odds mean in terms of percentages.
So you know evens is 50%, but what is 1.8 in percentage chance? Well this chart will show you!
Now, as you can see in this chart, we’ve not only got the probability but also fractional odds and decimal odds.
It’s really important that we refer to this chart so that we always know the probabilities of any bets we are making.
The Price Is Right? I hope not!
Here is a neat trick a Professional Betfair Trader told me when I was a teenager.
Try to work out what you think the probability of the outcome should be before you look at the odds.
Let’s say Manchester City v Everton is coming up this weekend in the Premier League.
What percentage chance would you give Man City to win?
I would personally say around 75% (perhaps more), which upon checking the chart we can see is 1.33 odds.
However, if I check the Betfair Exchange and the odds are 1.50, I would see that as value.
Why? Well let’s refer to the chart!
Because the market is offering me a much bigger price, the market thinks Man City only have a 66.67% chance to win 1.50 decimal odds.
Let’s run the maths simulator again!
100 £10 bets at odds of 1.33 would win on average 75% of the time (75 times)
100 £10 bets at odds of 1.33 would lose on average 25% of the time (25 times)
However, we are betting at odds of 1.50, so lets add that to the equation in place of the 1.33 odds that I think the market should be priced at.
A £10 bet at odds of 1.50 wins £5 and loses £10.
75 wins x £5 = 375
25 losses x £10 = -£250
Total Profit = £125
If I am correct, and I keep taking bets like this, on average in the long term I will make a very healthy profit.
I now have the foundation for a profitable Betfair trading strategy.
This really is essentially trading and betting in a nutshell, the foundation of making money on Betfair!
If I find value, I’m going to take advantage of it and reap the rewards.
Time To Find Some Real Life Betfair Trading Strategies
Marty, enough with the hypotheticals! How do I find value in the real markets today?
The first thing you need to do is to learn how to create a Betfair trading strategies.
Now, Betfair Trading Community has software that is designed exactly for this situation because we know this is the one thing you’re going to need to succeed.
You can sign up to it today – HERE
You need the tools to create your own profitable Betfair Trading Strategies or look at successful strategies that have already been shared by our members.
So, you will have your own Betfair Trading strategies plus strategies created by winning traders, which can then form a profitable portfolio for your betting or Betfair trading!
This software covers Horse Racing Trading, Football Trading and Tennis Trading, the golden triangle of sports betting.
Once you create or adapt a member’s strategy and save it, you get your strategy selections every day from that strategy creator.
Instantly, at the click of a button.
Testing a Betfair Trading Strategy Saves You Time and Money!
You don’t have to go in and do hours of laborious research every single day.
Using the Betfair Trading Community software your selections will automatically come up for you each day.
For the horses (and soon to come for the football) we’ve actually got back testing.
You can run a strategy and see exactly how it performed in the past couple of years, using the real Betfair odds, and see if it would have been a winning strategy.
This is such a valuable resource because if you’re a bettor or or a trader, you need to know that the trading strategy you’re creating or following is any good!
You can actually see the profit and loss, the ROI and the number of bets placed! (All pictured above)
This is such a powerful piece of kit.
In fact, you can even automate your bets to be placed using these selections on the horses.
(I won’t get into that today though, that’s a whole other blog post!)
You DO NOT Need to be an Expert in Betfair Trading Strategies
We have written the FREE pathway for you!
Ryan has set up a ‘Super Trader’ course that you can follow.
If you follow his course, you will actually know how to create a successful Betfair Trading Strategy.
This information is priceless, but we have given it away absolutely free, HERE.
I Know I’m Going To Lose & Gambling’s For Fools
Now, remember the key here is to find value, you want to find a value price.
We have no interest in gambling or taking big risks, we’re not betting just because we like the team name.
We’re not interested in whether we like the color of the kit they are wearing, or the name of the horse.
All we are interested in is this question:
Are the odds bigger than they should be, or are the odds shorter than they should be?
When you have created a strategy, tested the strategy and are convinced of its value, you are ready to start placing bets!
This is all actually very simple, isn’t it?
Well done you’ve read to the end, if you’ve got any more questions as ever, just get in touch with me.
I’m always here to talk to people, I always help people, it doesn’t matter if you’re a member or not, I will still help you!
